Iran has not operated an active military nuclear program for four years but its ongoing uranium enrichment efforts would allow it to produce a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a U.S. intelligence analysis released today (see GSN, Nov. 30). The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, represents an apparent change in opinion from the last report, according to the Associated Press. The intelligence community argued then that Tehran was maintaining nuclear weapons development. "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," according to the unclassified summary of the report.
One official said the report's conclusions illustrate the success of international diplomatic efforts to constrain Iran's nuclear program, AP reported.
"This is good news in that U.S. policy coupled with the policies and actions of those who have been our partners appear to have had some success," the official said. "Given that good news we don't want to relax. We want to keep those pressures up.
The estimate states, though, that Iran might ultimately move ahead with weapons development as a perceived boost to its national security and foreign policy goals (Pamela Hess, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 3).
Iran appears to be "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons," the report states.
The report "confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons," national security adviser Stephen Hadley said in a statement. "It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen."
"The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically -- without the use of force -- as the administration has been trying to do," he added (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Dec. 3).
Meanwhile, the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany have agreed to develop a third sanctions resolution against Iran over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment efforts, a French diplomat said Saturday
"The six have agreed to examine the elements of a new resolution on sanctions," the diplomat said after representatives from the six nations met in Paris.
The diplomat said that Western powers decided this weekend to push for a compromise with China and Russia, which have questioned the need for new punitive measures against Tehran, AFP reported.
"A compromise text will be worked out and should circulate between the capital cities concerned next week," the diplomat said in reference to the governments of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The French diplomat said the text of the resolution would be brought before the Security Council in New York for final approval once the countries agree on its details. That could occur within the next several weeks, the official said (Christophe de Roquefeuil, Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Dec. 1).
U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said today that U.S. and Chinese officials have moved closer toward agreement on sanctions against Iran, Reuters reported.
"We were able, with the Chinese government, to focus on a number of areas where we would agree to sanctions," Burns told reporters in Singapore. "Now if we can bring the Russians on board, I think we'll have the makings of a third Security Council resolution," he said.
Snow in Canada prevented Moscow's representative from reaching the meeting in Paris (Reuters/Washington Post, Dec. 3).
The Saturday meeting came one day after nuclear talks in London between EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and new top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. The session was a "disaster," according to the French source.
"Solana left asking himself what the future of the negotiations could be," the diplomat said (AFP II, Dec. 1).
Jalili demanded that the sides scrap all past agreements made in the effort to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, which the nation claims is intended only to generate energy but which Western nations suspect masks a weapons effort, the New York Times reported.
Solana had expected the talks to proceed from the basis he established with Jalili's predecessor Ali Larijani, who drove a hard bargain but remained open to substantive negotiations over nuclear issues.
"Jalili said, Everything in the past is past, and with me, you start over,'" one official said. "He said, None of your proposals has any standing.'"
Several officials close to the discussions said Jalili began the meeting with a 90-minute diatribe invoking theology, God, his doctoral dissertation and the popular support by Iranians for the country's uranium enrichment drive.
"There is no longer an Iranian nuclear problem," the official quoted Jalili as saying, adding that Jalili had declared that Iran would recognize only the International Atomic Energy Agency as a mediator in addressing nuclear disputes.
"We have in front of us the real Iran," the French diplomat commented, calling Iran's new stance a clear signal that it is not open to compromise over its uranium enrichment program.
"We can't do business with these guys at this point," said another official involved in the talks (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, Dec. 2).
Jalili defended his position at the meeting with Solana after he returned to Tehran Saturday, arguing that international powers should acknowledge Iran's right to pursue nuclear work, AFP reported.
"If some people have become disappointed because they cannot deprive Iran of its natural rights then this is another matter," Jalili said (Agence France-Presse III/Google News, Dec. 2).
Jalili was scheduled to meet with Russian officials today in Moscow, AFP reported.
"Mr. Jalili will be traveling to Moscow tomorrow," said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini. "He will meet with senior officials about strategic affairs" (Agence France-Presse IV/Spacewar.com, Dec. 2).