The reported death of an al-Qaeda chemical and biological-weapon specialist late last month would drastically undermine the organization's ability to independently develop a weapon of mass destruction, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 4).
Abu Khabab al-Masri, who died in a U.S. drone-launched missile attack in Pakistan, was known as a "mad scientist" who engineered chemical experiments in Afghanistan prior to the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. A video obtained by CNN in 2002 shows a group of dogs being killed by a chemical believed to be hydrogen cyanide while a person identified as al-Masri speaks in the background.
Al-Masri also gave out biological and chemical-weapon assembly instructions starting in 1999, according to the United States, which had offered $5 million for his death or capture.
"If he is out of the picture, al-Qaeda's weapons of mass destruction capability has been set back, which would make this one of the more effective strikes in recent years," said Arthur Keller, a former CIA case officer who headed efforts to track him down in 2006.
"Al-Qaeda has no shortage of people adept with explosives, and I know that al-Masri promulgated training manuals for poisons," he said, "but I'm not sure how skilled any of al-Masri's proteges may be at synthesizing chemical weapons or toxins."
Building chemical weapons is a difficult task, Keller said. "You need both education and hands-on experience to produce decent-quality chemical weapons or toxins."
There were no indicators that al-Masri was still involved in chemical weapons efforts after fleeing Afghanistan for Pakistan. He was still believed to be providing training for al-Qaeda operatives, according to U.S. officials.
The U.S. intelligence community had long considered al-Masri "frightening," said Brian Glyn Williams, a University of Massachusetts Islamic history expert who recently completed a government WMD study.
"From the U.S. government perspective, he was seen as a major threat. His potential to develop primitive weapons of mass destruction was not taken lightly by U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies," Williams said.
RAND Corp. analyst Seth Jones said al-Qaeda could recover from the setback.
"The death of Abu Khabab al-Masri has a short-term impact on al-Qaeda's operations by eliminating a competent senior leader," Jones said. "Over the long run, however, al-Qaeda has demonstrated an ability to replace most of its leaders that have been captured or killed" (Kathy Gannon, Associated Press/Google News, Aug. 10).