Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON -- Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week he is "confident" that Pakistan's nuclear weapons "are being handled appropriately" in the wake of a split in the ruling coalition (see GSN, Aug. 19).
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif withdrew from the coalition on Aug. 25, just one week after the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf. Slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party continues to lead the government in the run-up to presidential elections on Sept. 6.
Even as the Pakistani military battles Taliban insurgents on the Afghanistan border, the political instability in Islamabad has not increased the risk that extremists might acquire one of the nation's atomic weapons, according to the top U.S. officer.
"I have been in routine and regular contact with military leaders in Pakistan" since becoming the JCS chairman last October, Mullen told Global Security Newswire. Among the issues discussed has been "the safety and security of their nuclear weapons," he said, and "I am confident those weapons are being handled appropriately."
The admiral would not directly address whether he is taking additional actions now to determine if the latest political developments have weakened controls over the nuclear arsenal.
On a trip to Islamabad in February, Mullen met with Khalid Kidwai, who oversees the nation's atomic weapons as head of the Strategic Plans Division. At a press conference later in the day, Mullen said he was "very comfortable that the nuclear weapons are secure, that there are proper procedures in place."
He added: "I am not concerned that they are going to fall into the hands of any terrorists."
Decisions about whether to use nuclear weapons are controlled by a 10-member committee, which the Pakistani president leads. The committee, called the National Command Authority, uses 10,000 carefully screened soldiers to guard nuclear weapons facilities.
Kidwai, a retired lieutenant general, told reporters in January there was "no conceivable scenario" in which terrorists or militants could assume power in Pakistan and he said nuclear weapons and materials remain "absolutely safe and secure."
"I do not place much credence in scenarios that project a takeover of the Pakistani government or Army leadership by Islamic extremists," agreed Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center and an expert on South Asia, in a June essay.
Newsweek reported last week that PPP presidential candidate Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widower, has been treated as recently as last year for a range of mental health problems, including dementia, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Though his party has downplayed the revelation, it has given rise to new concerns about future control over the nuclear arsenal, the magazine reported.
Asked last week whether Pakistan's civilian leaders retain command over nuclear weapons or if instead they are largely under military purview, Mullen demurred.
"It isn't my place to characterize the internal affairs of the Pakistani government," he told GSN. "But I can say that I am comfortable that the right controls are being applied to the safety and security of the nuclear weapons in Pakistan."
Krepon cited one "worrisome scenario" in which discord among civilian and military leaders might endanger Pakistani nuclear weapons controls. "A prolonged period of turbulence and infighting among the country's president, prime minister, and army chief" would raise concerns because "unity of command is essential for nuclear security," Krepon wrote.
"Under the current Pakistani constitution, the president picks the army chief," he explained. "But Pakistan's constitution is far from being a settled document, and one of the amendments currently under consideration would shift this important prerogative to the prime minister."
If elements of power shift from the president to the prime minister, the latter might be tapped to take over as head of the National Command Authority, according to Krepon.
The United States has provided roughly $10 million to enhance Pakistani security, Kidwai told reporters.
Beyond that, said Krepon, "the most effective measures to promote nuclear safety and security are those that help Pakistan to find its footing. A well governed, stable society that is at peace with its neighbors is one in which nuclear weapons have little use and are well guarded."