The United States has moved unmanned aerial vehicles to the center of an evolving strategy for hunting down Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders in western Pakistan, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Aug. 13).
Pakistan has so far reported 11 missile strikes from Predator drones in 2008, following just three last year. However, the United States has not come close to locating the man behind the Sept. 11 attacks since U.S. military forces scoured Afghanistan's Tora Bora region in late 2001, U.S., European and Pakistani officials said.
Earlier strategies against al-Qaeda commanders overemphasized direct military action and left local intelligence collection efforts relatively underdeveloped, the officials said. They added that U.S. military involvement in Iraq also drew focus away from the search for bin Laden in Pakistan's tribal territories, where he is now believed to reside.
Pakistan continues to officially bar CIA operatives and U.S. special operations forces from its territory, forcing the United States to rely on drones for attacking suspected al-Qaeda enclaves. The attacks have killed two organization leaders this year, but civilian deaths and injuries have boosted tensions with Pakistan and raised concern among U.S. officials that they might be alienating potential informants.
No one has provided accurate information on bin Laden's whereabouts despite the $25 million U.S. bounty on his head.
"Unless you have people who support you, human intelligence will never work," said Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, a former Pakistani general who participated in activities targeting top al-Qaeda officials. "You have to have friendly people."
"Making more effort and flailing are different things," a high-level Pakistani security official added.
Officials believe bin Laden commonly conceals his appearance and shuns broadcast communication devices that could give away his location.
The answer to defeating al-Qaeda would have laid with U.S. aid to tribal areas in Pakistan rather than missiles, according to Pakistan officials.
"We thought, and we still think so, that the American strategy should have been to stabilize the area rather than look for a needle in a haystack," said Mahmood Shah, a civilian formerly responsible for security in the area. "If you find [bin Laden] now, the problem still won't be resolved Maybe you'll get the fish, but you'll poison the pond around him" (Craig Whitlock, Washington Post, Sept. 10).