Envoys for the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany gathered for talks in Paris yesterday, but it appeared unlikely that they would take new steps to rein in Iranian nuclear activities that Western powers fear could support an atomic-weapon program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 13).
(Nov. 14) -
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said today that new contacts with Iran could soon be established to discuss its nuclear program (Harold Cunningham/Getty Images).
Iran insists that its nuclear activities are strictly peaceful and has dismissed concerns that it intends to develop a nuclear bomb.
"The meeting allowed the participants to review the current situation and to discuss the way ahead. … The six will pursue their consultations on next steps in the upcoming weeks," said a French Foreign Ministry statement released after yesterday’s discussion.
Diplomats today were expected to discuss questions posed by Iran after the nation received a letter from European Union foreign policy head Javier Solana calling for renewed nuclear talks.
One high-level French official said before yesterday's session that major steps are unlikely before the Bush administration’s term lapses in January (Crispian Balmer, Reuters I, Nov. 13).
Solana today said talks were possible in the near future, Reuters reported.
"There may be some contacts to follow -- (like) some of the contacts we had during the summer of my deputy with his (Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili's) deputy to recuperate contacts -- soon," Solana told the news agency.
He added that the meetings might pave the way for him to meet again with Jalili (David Brunnstrom, Reuters II/Washington Post, Nov. 14).
Meanwhile, Iran has made major strides since early last year in construction of its heavy-water reactor at Arak, the Institute for Science and International Security reported yesterday.
The facility's cooling towers have been built and its reactor dome has almost been completed, a comparison of satellite photographs from last month and February 2007 revealed. Construction of buildings around the reactors has also progressed notably, the organization said.
The facility is expected to be finished in 2011 and its reactor is slated to start operating continuously in 2013, a high-level official familiar with the International Atomic Energy Agency's work in Iran said in September. An Iranian official estimated several years ago that the reactor would be completed this year, suggesting that building efforts have slowed down.
The facility is expected to produce roughly 20 pounds of plutonium each year, enough to fuel about two nuclear bombs if Iran reprocessed its spent reactor fuel. Iran has said it would not build any reprocessing facilities, but concerns persist that Tehran could construct such a plant at Arak or elsewhere, according to the report (Institute for Science and International Security release, Nov. 13).
Elsewhere, analysts and foreign policy officials are warning U.S. President-elect Barack Obama that threats of financial penalties or even military attack would probably fail to persuade Iran to halt its disputed nuclear activities, the Associated Press reported yesterday.
"An attack would almost certainly fail," states a report prepared for Obama by a group of 20 experts and senior U.S. diplomats. "Threats are not cowing Iran and the current regime in Tehran is not in imminent peril."
Iranians "have seen the outcome of U.S.-sponsored regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. They want no part of it," the report adds.
Instead, the report urges Obama to "open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive negotiations at the senior diplomatic level."
The report notes that the Middle Eastern state's nuclear policy is controlled by Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While Khamenei has issued many statements challenging Israel and Western powers, his "track record reveals a cautious decision-maker who acts after consulting advisers holding a range of views, including views sharply critical of Ahmadinejad," the report states (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 13).
Experts have also cautioned Obama against responding to a congratulatory letter received from Ahmadinejad last week, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 7).
"It is important for the Obama administration to ignore Ahmadinejad as much as possible because he is not a useful interlocutor and it looks like his political star has fallen," said Gary Samore of the Council on Foreign Relations. "It makes much more sense to try to open a dialogue with the supreme leader who actually controls the nuclear issue and the other important foreign policy issues."
Former State Department adviser Suzanne Maloney added that replying to the letter would be "a political risk at home" (Lachlan Carmichael, Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Nov. 13).