Iran analysts and advisers to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama doubt that the new administration will immediately pursue nuclear talks with Tehran upon taking office in January, the Christian Science Monitor reported today (see GSN, Nov. 20).
(Nov. 21) -
Some U.S. experts are concerned that pursuing nuclear talks with Iran could strengthen of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad' s domestic political standing (Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images).
Observers worry that the United States could bolster Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other critics of Western nations by opening dialogue before the Middle Eastern state votes on its next president in June. The United States suspects that certain Iranian atomic activities are intended to support nuclear weapons development, but Tehran insists its nuclear ambitions are strictly peaceful.
"The question now changes from the what to the how -- things like sequence and timing," Ploughshares Fund head Joseph Cirincione said Tuesday. "We want to see how domestic politics play out in the Iranian elections next year. ... You don't want Ahmadinejad to be given the credit for bringing Iran to the table."
Experts noted that U.S. economic difficulties would probably take priority over major foreign policy changes during Obama's early administration. The falling cost of oil has also reduced the urgency of engaging Iran by weakening the country financially, although Tehran cannot be expected to slow uranium enrichment work that could either fuel a nuclear energy program or help complete a nuclear bomb, they added.
Some experts said the United States could still pave the way for eventual nuclear talks by opening other diplomatic contacts. Cirincione said the United States should engage Iran on regional issues of interest to both sides before attempting to tackle the nuclear dispute.
RAND Corp. analyst James Dobbins added: "My own view is that dialogue with Iran is not going to lead to immediate results. ... But (we should) allow diplomats to speak to Iranians, free (them) to engage Iranians."
Working to improve relations with Russia could also boost the U.S. position for engaging Iran, said Geoffrey Kemp, regional strategic programs chief for the Nixon Center.
"It's our mishandling of the Russia portfolio that has emboldened the Iranians," Kemp said (Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 21).
U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to meet Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to discuss the nuclear standoff and other matters, the London Times reported.
The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation governing board would also address the dispute during its meeting next week, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
Questioned on reports that Iran's current uranium stockpile, with additional enrichment, could power a nuclear weapon, he said: “Some said it was enough; others said it was not enough, but close. ... In any case, you don’t want Iran to get close” (Tom Baldwin, London Times, Nov. 21).
Meanwhile, U.S. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) yesterday announced she had submitted a bill to prohibit U.S. civilian nuclear trade with the United Arab Emirates unless that country halts all exports that could support Iranian military or nuclear programs.
"We have seen little evidence of the UAE's willingness to cooperate with international efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program and to curb Tehran's ambitions to dominate the Persian Gulf," she said in a statement (U.S. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen release, Nov. 20).
Israel yesterday said the U.N. nuclear watchdog report issued this week indicates that Iran intends to develop a nuclear weapon, Agence France-Presse reported.
"Iran is continuing its deception and evasion tricks. Iran's reaction cannot remove the international community's fears and concerns over the real aim of its nuclear program," the Israeli Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that "the report highlights military aspects in Iran's nuclear activity."
"Israel reiterates its call for the international community and organizations to increase the pressure on the Iranian regime to abandon its intimidating program to acquire nuclear weapons," the release said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Nov. 20).
The United Kingdom yesterday expressed similar concerns, Reuters reported.
"Iran continues to enrich and to increase its capacity to enrich in breach of five U.N. Security Council resolutions," British Foreign Office Minister Bill Rammell said in a statement. "Iran's continuing failure to cooperate with the IAEA or to answer its questions increases our concerns about Iran's nuclear program and its intentions. It is vital that Iran urgently and comprehensively provides the IAEA with all the requested information, documentation and access."
"We share the IAEA's continuing concerns about outstanding issues relating to possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programs," he added (Adrian Croft, Reuters, Nov. 20).
Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani yesterday said the agency was seeking information outside the scope of its responsibility, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported.
"The IAEA should act impartially and within its defined framework and not follow accusations which have no documented proof," he said.
Rafsanjani also accused IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei of "making ambiguous remarks."
"On the one hand he says there are no deviations in the Iranian nuclear program, on the other hand he blames us for not replying to baseless charges not directly coming from the IAEA," he said (Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Earth Times, Nov. 21).