Recent reports that Iran had enough material in its stocks of low-enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon were premature, but Tehran is nevertheless only months away from that position if it continues to enrich at its 2009 rate, according to an expert analysis released yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2).
(Dec. 3) -
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tours the nation's enrichment plant earlier this year. The facility could process enough uranium within a few months to give Tehran the seeds of a nuclear break-out capability (Getty Images).
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in November that Iran had produced 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride in about 4,000 centrifuges. Some media outlets reported that such a quantity contained enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon (see GSN, Nov. 20), but those accounts failed to understand the amount of uranium in the hexafluoride, says a report by the Institute for Science and International Security.
In fact, the 630 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride, enriched to contain about 4 percent of the key isotope uranium 235, would have about 17 kilograms of the weapon-usable isotope, too little for Iran to fashion into a bomb, the report says.
Still, because Iran should need 20 to 25 kilograms of uranium 235 for a weapon, the nation has made significant progress toward producing that material. Iran has steadfastly denied it has nuclear-weapon ambitions. With its existing facilities, and assuming that new centrifuges begin working soon, Iran should be to produce the remaining 3 to 8 kilograms within a few months, the report says.
Having such a supply of low-enriched uranium would give Iran a "break-out" capability, if Tehran opted to pursue nuclear arms, but the nation would still need to enrich the lower-grade uranium to weapon-grade levels.
That concern should encourage the United States and the international community to increase "economic sanctions on Iran and accelerating the timetable for U.S.-led negotiations with Iran over the fate and transparency of its nuclear program" the report says (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Dec. 3).
The Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations warned in a separate report that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within one year of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's January inauguration, the London Times reported today.
To address the crisis, the next administration must pursue bilateral dialogue with Iran and work closely with other Middle Eastern states, said the authors of Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President.
“Diplomacy is not guaranteed to work,” said Richard Haass, one author of the report. “But the other options -- military action or living with an Iranian weapon are sufficiently unattractive for it to warrant serious commitment” (Catherine Philp/London Times, Dec. 3).
Meanwhile, former Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani has said he could meet with U.S. lawmakers, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday.
"Several letters were received from members of Congress and senators. We feel that it is time to hold bilateral negotiations," the Iranian parliament speaker said without naming the lawmakers or noting when the letters were received. "We have not given a negative response to this issue. It is under examination," the newspaper Kargozaran quoted him as saying (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Dec. 2).
Elsewhere, Iran's navy has launched a six-day exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil shipments that Tehran has vowed to block in response to any strikes on its nuclear sites, Reuters reported yesterday.
"The aim of this maneuver is to increase the level of readiness of Iran's naval forces and also to test and to use domestically-made naval weaponry," Iranian Adm. Qasem Rostamabadi told state media.
The exercise, also being conducted in the Persian Gulf, was set to involve more than 60 combat "combat vessel units," including missile-armed warships, destroyers, submarines, fighter jets, helicopters and special operations forces, said Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, commander of Iran's navy (Hafezi/Kalantari, Reuters/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 2).