WASHINGTON -- Legislation introduced yesterday in the House of Representatives would restrict a Bush administration plan for nuclear cooperation between the United States and the United Arab Emirates (see GSN, Nov. 25).
(Dec. 10) -
U.S. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) is seeking restrictions on U.S. nuclear trade with the United Arab Emirates (U.S. House of Representatives photo).
The measure, offered by Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), comes just days before President George W. Bush is expected to sign an accord to provide Abu Dhabi with nuclear technology and materials for a nascent civil atomic energy program. Bush administration officials anticipate that the so-called "123 agreement" could be finalized as early as next week, according to congressional sources.
However, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have voiced serious concerns about the Emirates' past -- and potentially future -- role in facilitating suspected Iranian nuclear weapon and missile technology programs (see related GSN story, today).
U.S. officials have alleged that the bustling Persian Gulf economic hub has hosted a number of front companies for illicit Iranian interests and served as a transfer center for equipment useful in building atomic arms (see GSN, Oct. 24).
Nuclear weapon analysts have concluded from a November U.N. report that Iran is nearing a point where it could quickly "break out" and enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon (see GSN, Dec. 3). Tehran insists its efforts are entirely peaceful.
In initialing a memorandum of understanding on nuclear cooperation in April, UAE leaders said they were taking steps to curb any activities that could advance an Iranian weapons program.
Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan said his nation would not build any uranium or plutonium plants, facilities that could be modified to produce nuclear arms materials.
"In an effort to limit the danger of proliferation, the UAE government has also adopted a policy renouncing the development of any domestic enrichment or reprocessing capabilities in favor of long-term arrangements for the external supply of nuclear fuel," he said during a signing ceremony. "We really want to be a good example for the region."
"I know that you will be," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told him (see GSN, April 21).
Bush stated in a Nov. 14 "presidential determination" that "the performance of the agreement will promote, and will not constitute an unreasonable risk to, the common defense and security."
Ros-Lehtinen, the senior Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said today she remains unconvinced.
"While the UAE has made some progress in combating terror financing, I still have grave concerns regarding the implementation of existing regulations under the UAE's legal framework for combating money laundering and terrorist financing, and whether the UAE is adequately addressing the expansion of informal [financial] networks," she said in a written statement provided to Global Security Newswire.
Experts point to a growing "hawala" alternative financial system, originating in ancient South Asia, which has played a role in criminal money-laundering and underwriting terrorist activities.
A key House Democrat sounded a similar alarm last month.
"Any 123 agreement between the United States and the UAE should not be submitted to Congress until, at a minimum, the UAE has addressed the critical issue of transshipments and diversion of sensitive technologies to Iran," said Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade Subcommittee. "The UAE has not done nearly enough to deny such technology to Iran and should not receive this diplomatic and economic plum until it has."
Sherman said he anticipates "hearings this winter" on the matter, which could take place early next year at the full Foreign Affairs Committee or his subcommittee. A vote on Ros-Lehtinen's bill is also not expected before a new session of Congress convenes in January.
If passed by both congressional chambers and signed into law, the bill would require the White House to certify that the UAE government has ceased for at least one year the transfer of all goods, technologies and services to Iran as required by U.N. Security Council resolutions or U.S. laws. Nuclear cooperation between Washington and Abu Dhabi could not be carried out lacking that certification.
The measure also would require the president to attest that the United Arab Emirates "has developed and fully implemented an export control regime in accordance with international standards" and has taken action "to target the logistical and financial networks that support terrorist organizations."
The Florida lawmaker met today with Elliott Abrams, the deputy assistant to the president for national security, to discuss the pending UAE arrangement. Her spokesman declined to divulge details of the meeting.
Legislative staff aides anticipate that the bilateral accord -- the text of which remains secret -- would not be submitted to Congress for review until next year.
It is unclear whether the current administration would put forward the 11th hour agreement before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, or alternatively leave it to incoming President Barack Obama to decide whether to pursue the pact. Thus far, the president-elect has not taken a public position on the matter.
Under the 1954 Atomic Energy Act, a nuclear cooperation agreement submitted to Congress could be implemented as signed unless lawmakers establish conditions on its execution within 30 days of continuous session.
Ros-Lehtinen was eager to file the legislation prior to the agreement's anticipated finalization next week in an attempt to delay it or trigger a revision, according to some observers.
"It could conceivably spook the UAE in to doing more public relations before signing," said nuclear nonproliferation expert Henry Sokolski. Upon seeing congressional resistance to the agreement, the Persian Gulf nation might become wary of angering the new U.S. president's team, he said.
Sokolski noted that a 2006 controversy on Capitol Hill led the Emirates to withdraw a bid to manage six U.S. seaports, another bilateral initiative strongly supported by Bush (see GSN, March 10, 2006).
"Once this thing gets signed, it's a loaded gun," Sokolski said. "You can't renegotiate it."
The proposed agreement on nuclear cooperation is "happening too fast and too indiscriminately," said one House aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. "[The UAE] record has been so poor up till now that we cannot be sure things have changed."
Additional worries include the possibility that the United Arab Emirates could use nuclear assistance to develop its own clandestine weapons effort.
"I have serious concerns about the proliferation impacts of the agreement itself," Sherman said in the written statement last month. "Before encouraging energy-rich states in the Middle East to develop nuclear power, we should be certain that these countries are willing to accept the most stringent nonproliferation standards and are capable of living up to their requirements."
Spokesmen for the UAE Embassy in Washington could not be reached by press time today.
Ros-Lehtinen's bill has just three co-sponsors -- Republican Representatives Dan Burton (Ind.), John Boozman (Ark.) and Joe Wilson (S.C.) -- but is expected to attract broad bipartisan House support in the new year, congressional staffers said.
Among lawmakers, "I've never heard anybody speak in favor" of the pending UAE agreement, one House aide said.
Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said it is less clear how any such legislation would fare in the Senate, where the bilateral accord might garner more support.
However, lawmakers should be troubled by disconnects between how the prospective signatories have described the agreement and what actually appears in the text, he said.
"The promise not to make nuclear fuel that the administration is crowing about having gotten the UAE to agree to is not clearly in the text of the agreement," Sokolski told GSN, citing what he has learned from those familiar with document. "This bit of false advertising could cause a major congressional row."
A U.S.-UAE pact could become "the model for future U.S. nuclear cooperative agreements with Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Libya -- nations that all have been suspected at one time or another of harboring nuclear weapons ambitions," he added. The United States "will end up having [provided] these states with starter bomb kits," he said.