The international community faces a multitude of nuclear threats that could push the world over a proliferation "tipping point," former Defense Secretary William Perry said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2008).
(Jan. 9) -
Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry yesterday said the United States faces multiple nuclear proliferation threats (Alex Wong/Getty Images).
"Today we are truly at a tipping point of nuclear proliferation ... and if the world does tip, it will be irreversible and dangerous beyond the imaginations of most people," said Perry, who chairs a panel that last month released a congressionally mandated interim report on the U.S. strategic posture.
Speaking at a discussion sponsored by the U.S. Institute for Peace, he noted that in the last 12 years, North Korea has conducted nuclear testing and weapons production; Iran has made substantial progress toward acquiring an atomic bomb; a smuggling ring has proliferated nuclear technology to an uncertain number of nations; and China and Russia have undertaken nuclear arsenal modernization programs, Congressional Quarterly reported (Matt Korade, Congressional Quarterly, Jan. 9).
Perry said that Iran would pose the most immediate threat for the next U.S. administration, the Associated Press reported (see related GSN story, today).
President-elect Barack Obama "will almost certainly face a serious crisis with Iran," he said. "Indeed, I believe the crisis point will be reached in his first year in office. So on the nuclear front, President Obama will face a daunting set of problems, none of which can be solved unilaterally" (Robert Burns, Associated Press/Google News, Jan. 9).
Perry noted that recent U.S.-Russian tensions have hindered moves to pressure Iran to halt potential nuclear-weapon development activities; meanwhile, Israel has threatened to take military action if Tehran moves forward with its disputed atomic work.
Defense Undersecretary Eric Edelman argued that the nuclear programs of countries such as Iran "are extremely vulnerable, which would give all of the countries with those weapons ... incentives to pre-empt, and ... it would give the United States incentives to pre-empt as well."
Perry offered Obama a number of recommendations for reducing the proliferation threat, including pursuing a new strategic arms control agreement with Russia, promoting U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and making nonproliferation a higher worldwide priority.
Daniel Poneman, who served as special assistant to President Bill Clinton, urged establishing an international system for ensuring that nations have access to nuclear fuel for energy purposes and then collecting the material to prevent it from being diverted for weapons purposes.
"Time is of the essence," he said. "If we don't fix this problem soon, the facilities will get built and it will be too late"(Korade, Congressional Quarterly).