North Korean officials told a visiting U.S. expert last week that they had prepared more than 30 kilograms of plutonium for nuclear warheads, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 16).
(Jan. 21) -
North Korean nuclear negotiator Ri Gun met with a U.S. nuclear policy expert last week (Teh Eng-koon/Getty Images).
Selig Harrison, head of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy in Washington, said his latest visit to Pyongyang involved meetings with officials including North Korean nuclear negotiator Ri Gun.
"All of those I met said the North has already weaponized the 30.8 kilograms (67.8 pounds) of plutonium listed in its formal declaration and that the weapons cannot be inspected," Harrison said Saturday in Beijing. Pursuing a definition for "weaponized ... the answer I got was, 'It means warheads.'"
Pyongyang could fuel four or five warheads with that amount of plutonium, Harrison said.
The Northeast Asian nation has an aggressive missile development program, which observers worry could be paired with its nuclear weapons effort.
Officials told Harrison that "North Korea is now a nuclear weapons state and will not commit itself now on when it will give it up as a result of denuclearization negotiations," he said.
"We are not in a position to say when we will abandon nuclear weapons," Ri said, according to Harrison.
The "much, much harder line" from the regime could indicate that military elements had gained authority in Pyongyang after leader Kim Jong Il's reported stroke in August, Harrison said.
"He has recovered, and he is now making what is described to me as 'key decisions,' but is not dealing on a day-to-day basis with detailed issues as he had done before," he said.
A number of officials indicated their desire to see diplomatic relations between Pyongyang and Washington improve now that Barack Obama has become U.S. president, Harrison said (see related GSN story, today). Obama should follow through on the U.S. promise to deliver its share of energy assistance to North Korea as part of the 2007 deal in which North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear sector, according to the North Korean officials. They also said they hoped the United States would provide agricultural aid to their nation, AP reported (Joe McDonald, Associated Press I/Washington Times, Jan. 18).
"They have very high hopes for Obama, but they want to confront him from a position of strength," Harrison said. "They are very interested in the possibility that he will move away from the regime-change policies of the Bush administration and will move toward normalization."
North Korea has made progress toward denuclearization since signing the agreement with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. The Stalinist state has halted operations at its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear complex, has moved to disable key facilities there, and last year submitted a declaration detailing its atomic holdings and activities.
However, the process stalled late last year over details of a protocol to verify the contents of the declaration. Pyongyang has denied a U.S. assertion that it agreed to allow collection of nuclear samples as part of verification, which would also involve site visits and interviews with nuclear personnel.
Harrison said he was told that actual dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor would begin only after "the completion of light-water reactors for the generation of electricity as a quid pro quo," the Washington Post reported.
U.S. Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton said during her confirmation hearing that North Korea must eliminate its nuclear weapons program and be more forthcoming about the atomic effort before achieving diplomatic relations with the United States. Given the crises in other areas of the world, it remains to be seen the level of attention that Pyongyang receives from Washington in the near future.
"If Obama tries to contain and minimize North Korea, Kim Jong Il will become more and more provocative," said Seoul-based North Korea expert Andrei Lankov. "North Korea has an urgent financial need to create international tension, which they will do until they are paid to stop doing it" (Blaine Harden, Washington Post, Jan. 18).
North Korea on Saturday again suggested it was not yet willing to move ahead with nuclear disarmament, Agence France-Presse reported.
"Even if the D.P.R.K.-U.S. diplomatic relations become normalized, our status as a nuclear-armed state will never change as long as the U.S. nuclear threat to us remains, even to the slightest degree," said the Foreign Ministry, which issued a similar message several days earlier.
Washington miscalculated in thinking it could offer diplomatic relations to the regime in exchange for nuclear disarmament, a ministry spokesman said.
"What we earnestly desire is not the normalization of D.P.R.K.-U.S. ties but the strengthening of nuclear deterrence in every possible way," he said. "We have made nuclear weapons not in order ... to seek the normalization of ties with the U.S. or economic assistance but to protect us from U.S. nuclear threats. We can live without the normalization of ties with the U.S. but we cannot survive without the nuclear deterrence" (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 17).
However, a regime-friendly newspaper in Japan said yesterday that there was a possibility of cooperation on disarmament between the two nations, Reuters reported.
"Change is not the monopoly of American politicians," according to the Choson Sinbo newspaper.
What is certain is that (the North) is ready to respond to any choice that the enemy state makes while it watches the launch of the new administration," it added (Jack Kim, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 20).
While its rhetoric has been uncompromising, the regime continues to move forward with nuclear disablement activities at Yongbyon, South Korean envoy Hwang Joon-kook said yesterday after a visit to Pyongyang (Associated Press II/USA Today, Jan. 20).