North Korea said today it is preparing a satellite launch and not what worried observers believe is a long-range missile test, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 23).
(Feb. 24) -
North Korea tried to launch a Kwangmyongsong satellite into orbit in 1998 (D.P.R.K. photo).
"The preparations for launching experimental communications satellite Kwangmyongsong 2 by means of delivery rocket Unha 2 are now making brisk headway" at a northeastern launch facility, according to the North Korean space technology agency. Its statement, reported by the state-operated Korean Central News Agency, did not specify the date of the planned test.
While heightened activity continues at the site, no rocket has been moved to the launch pad. Once that occurs, another five to seven days would be needed for fueling before the rocket could be launched, according to experts.
The facility is also used for launching the Taepodong 2, a ballistic missile believed to be designed to reach Alaska and Hawaii. Pyongyang last tested the weapon in July 2006 only to see it fail less than one minute after takeoff.
There have been reports that the missile being prepared for this test could fly farther than its predecessor, possibly as far as the west coast of the United States.
A missile test would be seen as a message to the leaders of South Korea and the United States, two of the nations involved in the continuing nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea (see related GSN story, today). Seoul and Washington, along with Japan, have urged Pyongyang not to test the missile again (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 24).
"The North claims it is a satellite. Then, it must produce evidence," South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said today. "If it is a satellite, the North must show it to the public."
Seoul would track any launch, "assuming it is a long-range missile," Lee said.
"Regardless whether the North launches a satellite or tests a long-range missile, it would pose [a] security threat to the South as the technology involved is about the same," he added (Agence France-Presse I, Feb. 24).
China, the nation that remains most friendly to North Korea, said it is also monitoring the situation, AFP reported.
"China takes note of this matter," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu. "We hope relevant parties can contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the region" (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Feb. 24).
The Japanese or U.S. militaries might use sea- or land-based missile defenses to destroy a missile if it flies toward Japan, the Washington Post reported.
That, however, could exacerbate tensions in the region, experts said.
North Korean leader "Kim Jong Il will absolutely lose face, if his missile is destroyed," said Satoshi Morimoto, former security policy chief at the Japanese Foreign Ministry. "We are afraid that the North Koreans may overreact and that there may be another launch, perhaps on South Korea."
"I see this as a no-brainer for the North Koreans," said Daniel Pinkston, a North Korean missile expert at the International Crisis Group. "All the indications are that they are likely to go forward with this. I don't think people see how serious the implications are. They are all bad for the United States."
Pyongyang might use a missile intercept as cause to suspend involvement in the denuclearization talks with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, Pinkston said.
"The North could say, `Why should we denuclearize? This just shows hostile intent.'" he said. "The best thing is no launch or the thing blows up on the launch pad. All the other scenarios are bad" (Blaine Harden, Washington Post, Feb. 24).