China's efforts to modernize its strategic nuclear forces over the past decade have given Beijing the ability "to inflict significant damage on most large American cities," according to a U.S. Defense Department report released yesterday (see GSN, March 7, 2008).
(Mar. 26) -
China displayed its DF-31 strategic missile launcher at a 1999 parade (U.S. Missile Defense Agency photo).
By developing mobile land-based missiles and ballistic missile submarines, Chinese nuclear forces are becoming far less vulnerable to pre-emptive attacks and are therefore significantly strengthening China's deterrent, says the report delivered annually to Congress.
China now has about 20 older CSS-4 ICBMs and fewer than 10 each of newer, road-mobile DF-31 and DF-31A ICBMs, the report says. In addition, the nation is expected to field its first operational ballistic missile submarine, set to carry 12 long-range missiles, by next year (see GSN, April 25, 2008).
Furthermore, Beijing has been researching long-range weapon enhancements, such as multiple-warhead missiles, maneuvering re-entry vehicles and missile defense countermeasures, all of which "will strengthen China's deterrent and enhance its strategic strike capabilities," the report says.
The weapon developments, however, might have outpaced China's strategy and planning.
"There is little evidence that China's military and civilian leaders have fully thought through the global and systemic effects of the use of these capabilities," the report says.
It also questions China's commitment to its no-first-use of nuclear weapons policy by noting that Chinese military "writings" have suggested that the nation's nuclear forces could be used to deter conventional attacks (see GSN, May 24, 2006).
"The conditions under which China's 'no-first-use' policy applies are unclear," says the report (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, March 26).
China reacted negatively to the report.
"We suggest the United States respect the fundamental facts, drop the Cold War thinking and prejudices, stop releasing such China military reports and stop the groundless accusations over China, to prevent further damage to the relationship between the two countries and two armies," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters (Reuters, March 26).
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd urged the United States to look for positive ways to engage China.
The "smart course of action" would be to integrate China into international institutions, he said in a television interview yesterday.
"Now, if China was to turn its back on that or not be responsible, the world would soon know," Rudd said. "They're not perfect. They've done some bad things in the past. But let's look at the opportunities, rather than simply assume it's all threat and all risk" (Rohan Sullivan, Associated Press/Washington Post, March 26).