WASHINGTON -- Nonproliferation experts yesterday recommended the U.N. Security Council pass a resolution to spell out the difference between a ballistic missile launch and a space vehicle launch (GSN, May 15).
(May. 19) -
North Korea's Unha 2 rocket lifts off on April 5. Disputes over Pyongyang's motivations for the launch prompted calls for a formal distinction in the definition of rocket and ballistic missile launches (Getty Images).
The ambiguity between the two kinds of events has been of particular importance in the wake of North Korea's April 5 rocket launch.
The rocket flew 1,900 miles, passing through Japanese airspace before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean. That is twice the distance reached in a 1998 rocket test and an improvement over North Korea's 2006 test of its Taepodong 2 long-range missile, which failed in less than one minute.
Pyongyang said the launch was a successful effort to put a communications satellite into orbit; other nations countered that it was another test of long-range missile technology and that the payload never reached space.
"We need a definition of ballistic missile," Bruce MacDonald, senior director of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, said during a panel discussion at the Henry L. Stimson Center. "North Korea's argument was 'this isn't a ballistic missile, it's a space launch vehicle.' I would argue, as a former aerospace engineer, that there's no doubt about the fact that the first two stages were following a ballistic trajectory."
MacDonald said he believes the launch was a test of the North Korea's long-range missile capability. He added that while there are ballistic missile elements to a space launch vehicle, "there shouldn't be this kind of theological debate."
"The U.N. Security Council ought to answer the question of does [a] ballistic missile include or not include space launch vehicles?" MacDonald said.
Neither MacDonald nor the other panelists offered specific language for such a resolution.
The two events can be differentiated by analyzing several physical principles, including velocity and trajectory, said Ben Baseley-Walker, a legal and policy consultant for the Secure World Foundation. However, the difference between space launches and missile launches is "fundamentally defined by intent," he added: "One man's space launcher is another man's missile system."
Without knowing the intent of a launch, observers would have little time to react, Baseley-Walker said. Japan had three to four minutes to decide whether or not to fire missile interceptors at North Korea's rocket. The U.S. government might have only 20 minutes to decide a course of action if North Korea was able to develop a missile that could reach the West Coast of the United States.
Relying on intent to determine if a launch involves a missile or a space-bound object could be a "troubling dilemma," according to Catherine Lotrionte, associate director of the Institute for International Law and Politics at Georgetown University. The challenges would include "the capability of making an accurate call on intent" and an analysis of international laws, she said.
The best solutions to discern intent are continued engagement with Pyongyang and improved intelligence, Lotrionte said.
"If you don't engage you're certainly not going to be able to get any intelligence. I'm not talking classified intelligence, I'm talking understand their intent, understand their culture, understand what's going on. If you're not engaging you know nothing, you're in the black," she said.
There is so much concern over North Korea's intent because it is a "budding" nuclear power, according to MacDonald. North Korea is known to have nuclear weapons but doubt remains about its long-range missile capability and its capacity to successfully place a nuclear warhead on a missile.
MacDonald recommended the United States maintain its "thin" missile defense systems to ward off a possible future attack from North Korea. He also suggested the United States implement a "bottom up" approach to diplomacy with North Korea, such as reaching out to the country's burgeoning business class, instead of traditional government to government engagement.
Lotrionte said North Korea had the legal right to launch a satellite because it had recently ratified the 1975 treaty that limits the use of space to peaceful purposes.
While the United Nations rebuked Pyongyang for its latest launch, more punitive measures were not taken because Russia and China argued that the launch did not violate U.N. Resolution 1718, which bars Pyongyang from conducting or launching any kind of ballistic missile. That resolution also ordered the North Korean government to suspend its ballistic and nuclear programs.
"Unless we can say for certain that this was a ballistic missile, and from my understanding that's not clear, then we can't say for certain that the resolution was violated," Lotrionte said.
Baseley-Walker called for increased "confidence-building measures" within the growing international space community. He noted that if North Korea had allowed inspections of the rocket before launch the international outcry might have been reduced.
Meanwhile, Japanese police today arrested a businessman for allegedly trying to export two vehicles which could be used in North Korea's missile program, Kyodo News reported.
Chong Rin Chae, a 50-year-old South Korean national and trading house president who used the Japanese name Tadao Morita, is suspected of attempting to export two tanker trucks to the North via South Korea. Local media reports said the secondhand vehicles could be used to carry missiles and fuel and serve as potential launching pads.