A high-level U.S. Defense Department official last week said that silo-based missile interceptors in Alaska and California could probably bring down a North Korean missile heading toward the United States, Bloomberg reported (see GSN, May 22).
“I believe we have a reasonable chance” of intercepting an incoming missile, said Charles McQueary, who on Friday ended his three-year tenure as head weapons tester at the Pentagon.
“I’d put it ‘likely’ ... as opposed to putting it ‘unlikely,'” he added. McQueary's comments followed an April 5 rocket launch and last week's string of short-range missile tests by North Korea -- which accompanied the regime's second nuclear test -- along with indications that Pyongyang might be planning another long-range missile launch (see related GSN story, today).
The $35.5 billion Ground-based Midcourse Defense system to date has deployed 28 interceptors at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. A total of 30 weapons are expected to be fielded.
The system has hit mock enemy missiles in eight of 13 tests dating back to 1999.
“There’s been very little testing so far” of the technology, McQueary said. “I wish we were further along, but we are not."
Nonetheless, “if North Korea launched a missile or two against us, we wouldn’t sit back and say, ‘I wonder if we have enough test data in order to launch,’” McQueary said. “We would launch."
The launch would probably involve more than one interceptor, he said.
North Korea has not yet been proven to possess a missile that could reach the United States (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg, May 29).
Some experts question the capability of the U.S. system and whether it is necessary, Congressional Quarterly reported yesterday.
“People want to create this aura of omnipotent missile defense,” said Brookings Institution senior foreign policy fellow Michael O’Hanlon. “But if they were right, then a country like North Korea shouldn’t be bothering in the first place."
“It’s really a bluff, hoping to deter North Korea, which of course it isn’t doing,” said former top Pentagon weapons tester Philip Coyle.
“Does anyone really believe North Korea would be suicidal enough to attack us with a ballistic missile?” he added.
Still, some lawmakers say that North Korea's missile tests and inflamed rhetoric illustrate that now is not the right time for a planned $1.2 billion cut to the missile defense budget.
“North Korea’s brazen act of aggression should strengthen our resolve for a multi-layered missile-defense system capable of protecting our nation and our allies,” said House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) (Josh Rogin, Congressional Quarterly, May 31).