A group of medical experts has issued recommendations on how authorities might minimize casualties in the event that an improvised nuclear device is used against a major U.S. city, New Scientist reported Saturday (see GSN, June 10).
The panel, convened by the National Academy of Sciences, based its findings on a hypothetical situation in which terrorists detonated a nuclear weapon the released the force of 10,000 tons of TNT. That weapon would be significantly less powerful than the atomic bombs held by the United States and Russia, but a realistic estimate for a device developed by less sophisticated means.
"Clearly there would be loss of life, but it's not hopeless," said panel leader Georges Benjamin. "We feel that there are things that one can do to mitigate it."
Since such an explosion would obliterate most structures and people within a roughly half-mile radius, the panel concentrated on measures that planners might employ to limit deaths outside the blast zone. "That's a place where you could get big gains if you plan right," said New Mexico health official Fred Mettler.
The most effective way for people to protect themselves from the deadly fallout, the panel found, was to stay indoors or underground rather than try to outrun the lethal gamma rays emitted by the explosion. Those rays would have a harder time penetrating buildings and basements than cars.
Instructing people to remain indoors could reduce radiation deaths by factors of 100 or 1,000, Mettler said. However, advance education would be crucial to such an effort.
"Without prior education," he said, "it would be a horrible issue."
The relative wisdom of attempting to escape the city or seeking shelter indoors might depend on where citizens are and the direction in which the prevailing winds are blowing the radioactive dust and rubble churned up in the blast. The panel said it would be critical for officials to be able to quickly figure out the direction of the cloud so they could tell certain areas of the city to evacuate and others to stay put. This, it said, would limit casualties among both citizens and rescue workers.
Radiation exposure generally attacks the immune system and leaves victims extremely vulnerable to infections and uncontrollable blood loss. Recent pharmaceutical advances could mitigate these potentially deadly effects, though the need at any given hospital following an attack could easily outstrip the drug supply. In such a case, one option would be to ferry victims for treatment at hospitals in other cities.
The U.S. government has not publicly addressed the panel's findings -- although, as Benjamin observed, "This is hot of the press. We've literally just briefed them" (David Shiga, New Scientist, July 11).