A British analyst argues that security weaknesses in Pakistan could allow al-Qaeda or Taliban extremists to seize a nuclear weapon, the National Post reported Saturday (see GSN, July 16).
"Knowledge that such a transfer has occurred may not become evident until the aftermath of a nuclear 9/11 in Pakistan or elsewhere in the world," said Shaun Gregory, head of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at the University of Bradford.
"The challenge to Pakistan's nuclear weapons from Pakistani Taliban groups and from al-Qaeda constitutes a real and present danger," Gregory wrote in an article slated for publication in Sentinel, the publication of the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.
Al-Qaeda leaders have recently warned that Washington is intent on controlling the South Asian nation's nuclear arsenal while indicating their own willingness to attack the United States with a Pakistani nuclear bomb, Gregory noted.
"While many of the statements are rhetorical hyperbole, the scale of the potential destructiveness of nuclear weapons or 'dirty bombs'; the instability and 'nuclear porosity' of the context in Pakistan; and the vulnerabilities within Pakistan's nuclear safety and security arrangements mean that the risks of terrorist groups gaining access to nuclear materials are real," his article states.
Pakistan has a strong nuclear-security infrastructure that involves detection systems, fortifications and separation of nuclear warheads from their detonators, Gregory stated.
The nation relies on "a layered concept of concentric tiers of armed forces personnel to guard nuclear weapons facilities," he wrote. All 8,000 to 10,000 nuclear security personnel are vetted for possible extremist tendencies and have their duties reshuffled on a regular basis.
Still, "no screening program will ever be able to weed out all Islamist sympathizers or anti-Westerners," according to Gregory.
"Despite these elaborate safeguards, empirical evidence points to a clear set of weaknesses and vulnerabilities in Pakistan's nuclear safety and security arrangements," Gregory wrote, noting that many Pakistani nuclear facilities are found in areas contested by Taliban forces.
Taliban and al-Qaeda extremists have attempted to breach Pakistani nuclear sites on several occasions over the last two years, Gregory said. The efforts included strikes my multiple suicide bombers on the entrance to an apparent nuclear-weapon assembly site in August 2008.
"The significance of these events is difficult to overstate," Gregory wrote. "Civilian nuclear weapons sites -- those sites where Pakistan's nuclear weapons are manufactured, assembled or taken for refurbishment -- are typically less protected than military sites."
"Pakistan's usual separation of nuclear weapons components is compromised to a degree by the need to assemble weapons at certain points in the manufacture and refurbishment cycle at civilian sites," he added (Peter Goodspeed, National Post, July 18).