WASHINGTON -- A number of political and security concerns make cooperation between the United States and Russia on missile defense unlikely, experts said this week (see GSN, Aug. 21).
(Aug. 26) -
Cows roam outside the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan in 2007. The Gabala station and another radar site in southern Russia could be useful additions to a proposed European missile shield, a top U.S. missile defense official said (Michael Mainville/Getty Images).
"Politically it's going to be very, very difficult" due to distrust by Russian military leaders of their U.S. counterparts and other "bad atmospherics," Mikhail Tsypkin, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, said Tuesday during a panel discussion at the Hudson Institute.
The Bush administration plan to permanently install 10 ground-based interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic has become a major point of contention between Washington and Moscow. The plan -- which U.S. officials argue is intended to defeat Iran's burgeoning long-range missile capabilities -- is under review. However, the Kremlin has argued that the system would pose a threat to its strategic security.
Both sides have offered ideas for breaking the tension, with the United States focusing on cooperation and transparency in its European missile-shield operations and Russia proposing alternatives for the present plan.
The idea of a compromise partnership has been floated on Capitol Hill by some lawmakers, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.). He has asked whether the two countries might be able to share radar data to track and intercept an enemy missile.
In June, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn told Levin's panel that the administration is examining ways to include two Russian radar installations in a European missile defense system (see GSN, June 17). Such a move would be viewed in Washington as an addition to the already proposed plan, a position not popular in Moscow.
At that same hearing U.S. Missile Defense Agency chief Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly said he had visited a Russian radar facility at Gabala, Azerbaijan, and another in Armavir in Southern Russia and believes that both installations would be helpful in monitoring Iranian missile tests.
O'Reilly has also endorsed the idea of a Joint Data Exchange Center, which would enable the United States and Russia to share information on missile launches (see GSN, July 14).
A senior Russian military official today said the two nations are in talks about a joint missile launch monitoring facility, possibly in Moscow.
The center would allow instant communication in the event of a missile launch and would "protect our countries from a possible accident situation that could arise," said Gen. Nikolai Makarov, head of the Russian General Staff.
A schedule would be hammered out once the locale is chosen, Agence France-Presse reported.
Tsypkin said the radar in Azerbaijan presents a technical problem for the U.S. plan because it is not configured to guide missiles. He quoted a Russian general who made a joke about the site: "'The Americans need a shotgun and we're offering them binoculars.'"
Tsypkin said there is also a "basic lack of trust" between the two nations, adding that Washington is fearful Moscow would have the power to "veto" any proposed action in the event of an Iranian missile launch.
In addition, the United States would be concerned about technical information on the deployed systems leaking to third parties "either for political reasons or for sale," he told the audience.
Meanwhile, Russia "would be worried that we would drag them down into some kind of adventure with Iran," Tsypkin said.
Cooperation on missile defense also would be hampered because publicly Russia has said there is no threat from Iran, according to Stephen Blank, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made "flexible" statements regarding the situation when U.S. President Barack Obama visited Moscow in June, Blank said. However, he soon again took up the threat that if the United States places missile defense assets in Europe, Russia would field tactical Iskander missiles near Poland, according to Blank.
Those missiles could be fielded in ballistic or conventional formats, "which means that it comes in modes that cannot be defended against," he said, without elaborating.
Blank described the missiles as "countervalue" weapons, which target the population of an opponent, and not "counterforce" systems aimed at the opponent's military-industrial infrastructure. Iskander missiles are designed to "intimidate the Poles and the Baltic States," Blank told the audience.
He said that "in principle" a missile defense deal could be struck but "it would be a very arduous negotiation and it would take a long time." It would also "require and immense change of opinion not just among [Russian] generals but among Senator Levin's colleagues, too," Blank added.