U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Iran's formal effort to design and build a nuclear weapon has remained suspended since 2003, but that Tehran is keeping open the option of reviving the program, Newsweek reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 16).
(Sep. 17) -
An Iranian military helicopter flies over the nation's Natanz uranium enrichment complex in 2005. Iran has not revived its military nuclear program since suspending the effort in 2003, U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly informed the White House (Henghameh Fahimi/Getty Images).
The intelligence community has informed senior White House officials that the condition of Iran's military nuclear program is still accurately reflected in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which asserted with "high confidence" that Iran halted the program in late 2003 and concluded with "moderate confidence" that the effort had not been resumed, two counterproliferation officials said (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2007).
"That's the conclusion, but it's one that -- like every other -- is constantly checked and reassessed, both to take account of new information and to test old assumptions," said one of the officials.
The United States and other Western powers have expressed concern that Iran could tap elements of its nuclear program to construct a nuclear bomb; Tehran, though, has insisted its atomic activities have never included any military component.
The intelligence assessment will remain open to controversy, said Institute for Science and International Security head David Albright.
"People are looking at the same information and reaching different judgments," Albright said. "Given all the developments in Iran, these assessments are hard to believe with any certainty. Nobody's been able to bring total proof either way."
Active nuclear-weapon development efforts "can be observed in Iran even after 2003," a German intelligence report asserted last year, according to court documents.
Intelligence services in Germany and elsewhere have based accusations against Iran on the Tehran's attempts to import dual-use technologies that could support either nuclear weapons work or more benign projects (Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, Sept. 16).
Potential civilian uses for such technologies have complicated efforts to prosecute German-Iranian businessman Mohsen Vanaki and other suspected proliferators, says an ISIS analysis released yesterday (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Sept. 17).
Meanwhile, top diplomats from the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations, Germany and the European Union plan to confer next week on upcoming multilateral talks with Iran, the Associated Press reported. The six powers hope that Iran will accept political and financial incentives to halt nuclear activities that could support weapons development; Tehran has turned down such offers to date.
The Wednesday meeting is "an important opportunity for the six ministers and (EU foreign policy chief Javier) Solana to have an exchange about how these discussions and dialogue with Iran should be taken forward, what the perspective is, what we're looking for and what a reasonable degree of progress to expect would be," said British Ambassador to the United Nations John Sawers (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Taiwan News, Sept 16).
The world powers and Iran have not yet settled on a location for the Oct. 1 negotiation session, Tehran indicated today. Solana had previously suggested the talks would "very likely" take place in Turkey, Agence France-Presse reported.
"The venue for holding the meeting is still not fixed," state media quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as saying.
Iran will not engage in any bilateral discussions with the United States at the meeting, Mottaki added: "This is not a direct talk between Iran and U.S., but in any case they are present at the negotiating table and different issues will be discussed" (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Sept. 17).
Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized French President Nicolas Sarkozy's remark that Iran's nuclear weapons program was a "certainty" to the French intelligence community
Sarkozy's comment was "very far from a realistic and correct understanding of Iran's peaceful nuclear program," spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said, adding that the statement was "issued with utmost bias and is politically motivated."
"This kind of comment will not influence or effect Iran's determination to pursue its rights and will also not impact the cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the [International Atomic Energy Agency]," he said, according to an Iranian news agency (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Sept. 17).
The spokesman added that Sarkozy's statement "is in complete contradiction with evidence of IAEA's experts," the Xinhua News Agency reported (see GSN, Sept. 10; Xinhua News Agency, Sept. 16).
Support for new sanctions against Iran has grown among European nations, occasionally placing them at odds with the Obama administration, analysts told AFP yesterday. Washington intends to evaluate the outcome of the Oct. 1 discussions with Tehran before openly considering additional economic penalties.
"The Americans don't know what to do any more. They're looking for a way out but all there is is a black hole," one European official said.
"It's the opposite of the situation two or three years ago. (Then) the Europeans were ready to negotiate and the Bush administration was taking a hard line," added Pascal Boniface, an expert with the International and Strategical Relations Institute in Paris (Philippe Rater, Agence France-Presse III/Zawya, Sept. 16).
"The EU has so far been able to agree to sanctions stronger than the U.N. asked for," Bruno Tertrais, an analyst with the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, told the Christian Science Monitor.
It is uncertain how long the European consensus on new sanctions can last, given the strong trade ties some of the nations have with Iran, he said. "If the EU is divided, it is also because of the lack of a clear U.S. policy."
Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb called Tuesday for independent EU sanctions against Iran if the U.N. Security Council does not approve new penalties against the country (Robert Marquand, Christian Science Monitor, Sept. 16).
A top Republican lawmaker yesterday urged his colleagues to approve the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act ahead of the Oct. 1 meeting, AFP reported.
"The time is now for Congress to enact the strongest possible sanctions against the regime in Iran," said Representative Michael Pence (Ind.).
The legislation would essentially cut off any business between the United States and foreign companies that sell or aid sales of refined petroleum to Tehran.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-Calif.) has said he would wait until the end of September to consider advancing the bill (Agence France-Presse IV/Google News, Sept. 16).
Israel will launch military strikes on Iran nuclear facilities if Western powers fail to impose tough penalties against the country this year, a former high-level Israeli defense official told the London Telegraph.
"We believe that Iran has the capacity and the delivery capability for nuclear weapons. They can proceed to production. We have got two months to act -- before the end of 2009," said former Israeli Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh.
"If Iran gained the bomb it would trigger a regional arms race with Saudi [Arabia] and Egypt quickly obtaining weapons," Sneh said. "We would be living next to three Pakistans" (Damien McElroy, London Telegraph, Sept. 17).
Elsewhere, Chile and Singapore yesterday prevented the 118-nation Nonaligned Movement from unanimously endorsing a draft resolution, proposed by Iran, that would ban any military attacks on nuclear facilities, Reuters reported. The two countries said the ban should only apply to confirmed civilian sites, according to diplomats (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Sept. 16).