Newly leaked excerpts from a running U.N. analysis of Iran's nuclear capabilities support the conclusion that the nation has obtained much of the data necessary to build a nuclear bomb and fit it onto a missile, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 2).
(Oct. 5) -
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, left, speaks to reporters yesterday with top Iranian nuclear energy official Ali Akbar Salehi. Agency inspectors are set to visit Iran's Qum enrichment facility for the first time on Oct. 25, ElBaradei said (Atta Kenare/Getty Images).
The United States and its European allies suspect that Iran's nuclear program is geared toward nuclear weapons development; Tehran has denied the allegation, contending its atomic ambitions are strictly peaceful in nature.
In 2002, Iran undertook a multipronged “warhead development program” aimed at designing a nuclear tip for the country's Shahab 3 ballistic missile, according to newly disclosed details from the International Atomic Energy Agency report, "Possible Military Dimension of Iran's Nuclear Program."
The new excerpts were confirmed by a high-level European official with knowledge of the full report; parts of the documents were leaked last month to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 18; Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 4).
"The development work to design a suitable chamber inside the re-entry vehicle is intended to accommodate a new warhead payload that is quite likely to be nuclear,” says a sample of the document released by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Oct. 2). The report does not specify the project's current status, according to the Times (Broad/Sanger, New York Times).
“Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based upon [highly enriched uranium] as the fission fuel. The necessary information was most likely obtained from external sources and probably modified by Iran," the document adds. Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist and proliferation Abdul Qadeer Khan has been widely credited with providing nuclear-weapon assistance to Iran (see GSN, Sept. 25).
The new excerpts also include details on alleged Iranian high explosives research relevant to designing nuclear-weapon triggers.
“Information received from a member state indicates a round, semi-round and semi-spherical shock generator system for which an [exploding bridgewire] detonator is being developed," the IAEA report states. "Iran may have developed an effective high explosive implosion system, which could be contained within a payload container believed to be small enough to fit into the re-entry body chamber of the Shahab 3 missile."
The U.N. nuclear watchdog judged that Iran had established a "high explosives industry" capable of manufacturing nuclear-weapon triggers using detonators and high-voltage firing components.
“Iran has conducted studies relating to the aspects necessary to incorporate a [nuclear] device into a conventional delivery system such as the Shahab 3 missile," says the report, which speculates that Iran might have begun work on an experimental nuclear-capable warhead (Barnes, GSN).
The United States is reconsidering its 2007 intelligence assertion that Iran halted its formal nuclear-weapon design program in 2003, one high-level U.S. official told the Times (see GSN, Sept. 17; Broad/Sanger, New York Times).
Meanwhile, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei announced yesterday that his agency would inspect Iran's recently disclosed and still unfinished Qum enrichment facility on Oct. 25, AP reported. Public revelation of the site raised concerns that Iran intended to generate nuclear-weapon material at a clandestine enrichment site.
"I see that we are at a critical moment. I see that we are shifting gears from confrontation into transparency and cooperation," said ElBaradei, who stressed that U.N. nuclear watchdog still has no "concrete proof" that Tehran is pursuing an active nuclear-weapon design effort (Associated Press I/Washington Post, Oct. 5).
ElBaradei said his agency would work out details of the visit in an Oct. 19 meeting with Iranian atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi, Reuters reported.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his nation's disclosure of the Qum facility last month eliminated any "vagueness" about Tehran's nuclear intentions (see GSN, Sept. 25).
"There are no ambiguous issues remaining because of Iran's good cooperation with the agency," Ahmadinejad said in talks with ElBaradei, according to state media (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters I, Oct. 4).
Elsewhere, U.S. officials expressed guarded optimism about the direction of multilateral talks with Iran, AP reported. In a meeting last week with the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany, Iran tentatively agreed to ship much of its low-enriched uranium stockpile to France and Russia for further refinement.
"The fact that Iran came to the table and seemingly showed some degree of cooperation, I think, is a good thing," U.S. national security adviser Gen. James Jones told CNN yesterday.
"But this is not going to be an open-ended process. ... We, the world community, want to be satisfied within a short period of time," he said. "So it's not going to be extended discussions that we're going to have before we draw our conclusions to what their real intent is. But for now, I think things are moving in the right direction" (AP I).
At their next meeting on Oct. 19, Iran and the world powers are expected to discuss plans for transferring 1,200 kilograms of Iran's uranium stockpile to Russia, Jones said.
Asked about the newly leaked IAEA assessments, he said: "Whether they know how to [build a nuclear weapon] or not is a matter of some conjecture, but what we are watching is what is their intent and we have been worried about that intent," Jones told CBS' "Face the Nation."
"For now things are moving in the right direction," he said.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice added that she was "not in a position to characterize (the New York Times) report or our intelligence"
"There are various assessments and they don't all align," she said. "What happened last week was a constructive beginning but it was only a beginning. The onus is now squarely on Iran to adhere to the commitments it has made" (Reuters II, Oct. 4).
The five permanent U.N. Security Council powers are reviewing penalties that could be imposed on Iran if the negotiations fail, Rice said, according to AP. The world powers are in "intense negotiations with Iran, which would have a "finite period" to open its entire nuclear program to international scrutiny, she said (Associated Press II/Google News, Oct. 4).
A group of Democratic and Republican senators yesterday urged colleagues to seriously weigh legislation that would impose new U.S. economic penalties on Iran over the nation's disputed nuclear activities, The Hill reported.
"We need to bring a real sense of urgency to this issue," Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) told Fox News. "The clock is running. We need to have tough sanctions."
He added: "Having this dialogue is good but what’s important is holding them to what they do, not what they say."
"We should at least give the president all of he tools he needs to impose sanctions," added Senator Bob Casey (D-Pa.). "We cannot allow talking and negotiation to replace strong action."
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). called for a congressional "Iran week," during which the Senate could vote on Iran sanctions proposals.
If sanctions fail to curb Iran's nuclear activities, the United States should take military action against Iran that would "destroy their ability to make conventional war," Graham said (Brush/Johnson, The Hill, Oct. 4).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month gave Russian leaders a list of Russian nuclear experts suspected of providing nuclear-warhead design assistance to Iran, the London Times reported.
“We have heard that Netanyahu came with a list and concrete evidence showing that Russians are helping the Iranians to develop a bomb,” a Russian defense source close told the newspaper. “That is why it was kept secret. The point is not to embarrass Moscow, rather to spur it into action” (London Times, Oct. 4).