The dramatic expansion of Iran's uranium enrichment program over the last decade has led some analysts to speculate that Tehran could accept measures aimed at preventing it from building bombs in exchange for greater international acceptance of its nuclear work, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 14).
(Oct. 15) -
Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility, shown in 2005. Some experts have suggested Iran might allow increased scrutiny of its nuclear program in exchange for greater international acceptance of its uranium enrichment activities (Getty Images).
Acting on concerns that Iran's enrichment program could generate nuclear-weapon material, the United States and other Western powers have worked for years to persuade the Middle Eastern state to halt the effort in exchange for political and economic benefits. Tehran has turns such offers down, insisting its nuclear ambitions are strictly civilian in nature.
“If the Iranian endgame is to keep enrichment, and if the United States’ endgame is to make sure there are no nuclear weapons in Iran, then it can be a win-win. Those who have been criticizing the [Obama] administration for compromising or giving Iran a concession, they are wrong. It is not a concession to adjust to an unchanging reality,” said Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council.
As Iran's uranium enrichment program is now well established, Western nations should focus on a bolstering the nation's nuclear transparency rather halting its disputed work, Parsi argued.
“Sometime, a compromise is an adjustment to reality,” he said, cautioning that a compromise could still encourage aggressive behavior aimed at securing additional concessions from the West.
"The Iranians are simply in no mood to accept any serious limits on the expansion of their program. From their point of view, they already suspended enrichment for almost two years, from 2003 to 2005, and from their perspective, they got nothing for that and they’re not going to do that again,” said Flynt Leverett, an Iran expert with the New America Foundation.
Iran understands "that by expanding, they’ve gotten the attention of the international community and they have cards to play," Leverett added.
Some experts suggested that the objective of Iran's nuclear program is not to produce actual nuclear weapons, but to convince other nations that the state could build nuclear bombs if it chose to do so.
"[The Iranians] are already where they wanted to be. They are virtually a nuclear state; the issue of national pride is resolved,” said Abbas Milani, Iranian studies head at Stanford University.
“Nuclear latency has all the advantages of actual possession of a bomb without any of the unpleasant consequences, of the sort North Korea is suffering,” added Middle East analyst Juan Cole (Michael Slackman, New York Times, Oct. 14).
U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday discussed the nuclear dispute by telephone, Agence France-Presse reported.
The leaders "discussed the need to continue a unified international approach to address Iran's nuclear
ambitions," according to a White House press release.
In talks earlier this month with the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany, Iran tentatively agreed to rely on other countries for enrichment of uranium needed to operate a research reactor in Tehran. The nation also agreed to allow international inspectors to examine its recently disclosed Qum enrichment facility for evidence of weapon activities.
Obama and Sarkozy "expressed the hope that the resumption of dialogue (with Iran) would result in decisive progress in coming weeks in accordance with Iran's international obligations and noted that Iranian cooperation would be evaluated by the end of the year," France said in a statement (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Oct. 14).
In a hint that Beijing might resist new international sanctions on Iran, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao today pledged to maintain close ties with the Middle Eastern state, Reuters reported.
China hopes "to maintain high-level contacts with Iran, encourage mutual understanding and confidence, promote practical cooperation between the two sides and close coordination in international affairs," Wen said, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
"China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in promoting peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue," he said (Chris Buckley, Reuters, Oct. 15).
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin yesterday warned it would be premature to consider new penalties against Tehran, AFP reported.
"It's too early to speak of [sanctions]," Putin said. "There is no need to scare the Iranians. There is a need to reach agreements, there is a need to search for compromises."
Still, if negotiations "don't take place or end in a fiasco, we can speak of further steps," he added (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Oct. 14).
In Washington, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bill yesterday that would enable states and municipalities to divest without fear of lawsuits from firms with a stake of at least $20 million in Iran's energy sector, AFP reported.
"The risks posed by a nuclear Iran -- from threats to our allies, to a Middle Eastern arms race, to a nuclear umbrella for terrorists -- are too grave to ignore," said Representative Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the House majority leader.
"The window for engagement [with Iran] will not remain open indefinitely," he said.
"No one in this country ought to involuntarily have his or her money put to the support of the Iranian economy," added Representative Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, Oct. 14).
Meanwhile, Iran criticized U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent suggestion that world powers would not necessarily impose new sanctions on Tehran, RIA Novosti reported.
"The positions of Mrs. Clinton are at odds with the present-day reality of the negotiations (with the Iran Six on Iran's nuclear program) in Geneva and their results. Such approaches have double standards," state media yesterday quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as saying.
"Tehran proposes that Mrs. Clinton look at things realistically and refrain from the unproductive slogans and exhortations of the previous Bush administration," he said (RIA Novosti, Oct. 14).
Elsewhere, a high-level Israeli official warned that his country would do what was necessary to protect itself in light of the nuclear threat posed by Iran, AFP reported.
"We'll take the actions that are necessary for our survival, we'll do whatever is necessary at that time," said Uzi Landau, Israel's conservative infrastructure minister.
"It is better not to talk now about the details" of possible moves by Israel, he said. "By the actions taken by most European governments you don't see that the gravity of the situation has been understood" (Agence France-Presse IV/Spacewar.com, Oct. 15).
Jerusalem intends to launch an attack on Iran after the end of 2009, the French magazine Le canard enchaîné reported yesterday.
Israeli Defense Force Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi informed a French official that the attack would involve ground-based forces rather than airstrikes, the report indicated, according to Asian News International.
The attack could target Iranian nuclear facilities and scientists, the magazine reported, noting that Israel has ordered combat rations for elite forces and called on its overseas reserve personnel to return home (Asian News International, Oct. 15).
Iran is capable of surviving any attack, Iranian Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami said, according to United Press International.
"Iran is a great power in the Middle East and no problem can be solved in its absence," Salami said. "Despite imaginations of many enemies, Iran is strong, strenuous and invincible" (United Press International, Oct. 14).