Current models for predicting the dispersal range of radioactive fallout following the detonation of a nuclear weapon are too simplistic, scientists said in a press release issued yesterday (see GSN, July 13).
Existing models -- which predict a "cone-shaped area of fallout" based on wind speed and direction -- fail to address the ways in which wind moves around buildings, which could affect the level of contamination for specific locations, according to an American Institute of Physics press release. The pattern of fallout can also be affected significantly by where the detonation occurs and the temperature of the radioactive cloud itself.
"The predictive capabilities of today's state-of-the-art models in urban areas need to be improved, validated and tested," Los Alamos National Laboratory physicist Fernando Grinstein said in the release. "Work in this area has been limited primarily because of lack of consistent funding."
Physicist Adam Wachtor yesterday was set to share his work on improving modeling at a meeting of the American Physical Society's Fluid Dynamics Division in Minneapolis. His models predict the dispersion path of a cloud of hot gas produced by the simulated detonation of a 1-ton bomb in a city.
The Homeland Security Department, the U.S. national laboratories and other agencies have sponsored the research.
Scientists hope to see the work provide practical guidance for emergency personnel.
"We're preparing for (a possible) crisis," Grinstein said (American Institute of Physics release, Nov. 22).