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START Verification Regime Could Outlast Treaty

The Obama administration hopes to see verification measures for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty maintained even after the pact expires on Dec. 5, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 20).

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed in July to cut their nations' respective deployed strategic nuclear arsenals to between 1,500 and 1,675 warheads, down from the 2,200-weapon limit the states are required to meet by 2012 under another treaty. The leaders also pledged to restrict strategic delivery vehicles on each side to between 500 and 1,100.

Diplomats have been negotiating the terms of the new treaty for months. While they still hope to produce a document by Dec. 5, ratification by lawmakers from both nations would not occur for some time.

"The negotiating teams continue to work very hard in Geneva. They have agreement on a number of issues but they are also trying to work out some of the areas where they need to come together," said U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly.

"Because the treaty has to be ratified by the respective legislatures, we ... know that we are not going to have a ratified treaty that can enter into force," he said. "So we are having discussions with Russia to see how we can continue some of the transparency and verification measures ... until the treaty is ratified."

Legislation introduced earlier this month by Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) would keep the door open for inspections by U.S. and Russian monitors in the other nation (see GSN, Nov. 6). Such operations are aimed at helping ensure the sides are meeting their obligations under the 1991 pact and the 2002 Moscow Treaty.

"Since we recognize we're not going to have a fully ratified treaty in both capitals, we're looking at ways that a number of provisions can remain in effect in this period between December 5 and whenever the new treaty is ratified," according to Kelly.

"These monitoring mechanisms are important," he said. "You need to have some kind of mechanism to keep these means of monitoring in place and ongoing."

The United States is believed to have 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads on operational status, with Russia holding roughly 2,790 (David Alexander, Reuters/Washington Post, Nov. 23).