A new report indicates that North Korea would someday have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon that could be placed onto a missile, Agence France-Presse reported Sunday (see GSN, Dec. 18).
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South Korean activists carry a mock missile during a demonstration against North Korea last June. Pyongyang is expected to obtain the ability to fit nuclear warheads onto its missiles, according to a new report (Kim Jae-hwan/Getty Images).
"It is believed that North Korea has not completed the technology for the miniaturization ... of nuclear warheads," the South Korean government-operated Institute for Defense Analyses said in a report that is expected to be released next month.
However, the organization found that it is "just a matter of time" before the North acquires that capability, the Yonhap News Agency reported.
The institute based its rationale on the large amount of resources that Pyongyang has designated to for its nuclear weapons program. They include: roughly 3,000 nuclear scientists and associated research personnel and 28 state-run agencies focusing on nuclear development. The Stalinist state has already carried out two nuclear tests, the first in October 2006 and the second last May (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Dec. 20).
Seoul asserted yesterday that Pyongyang does not currently have the ability to produce nuclear warheads for missiles, Yonhap reported.
"There have been no substantial information or conclusive tips" to suggest that North Korea now has the capacity to fit nuclear weapons to missiles, National Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae said.
Won said the institute's claims came from common conjecture and that the South Korean government closely monitored Pyongyang's efforts to miniaturize nuclear arms.
Should the North Korean government attain the technology, it would strengthen its bargaining position in any nuclear disarmament talks (Sam Kim, Yonhap News Agency I, Dec. 21).
Meanwhile, Washington is continuing its efforts to convince the North Korean government to rejoin stalled six-party nuclear negotiations, Voice of America reported.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger said foreign nations must act decisively with Pyongyang and make it "very clear to the North Koreans that if they don't come back to the table and if they aren't reasonable, they are going to pay a price for it, potentially at least that we will use force to make our views known."
Eagleburger, who served as the U.S. chief diplomat under former President George H.W. Bush, said he doubted the Obama administration would have the inclination to "go to the use of force against the North Koreans" and that there would not be international backing for such a move.
He questioned the usefulness of additional six-party talks, which involve China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia and the United States. North Korea has signed multiple denuclearization agreements and has made some moves in that direction, but has yet to fully meet its obligation to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure.
"The whole purpose of those talks, to begin with, was to prevent them from going in the nuclear direction. Well they not only went in the direction, but they ended up successfully (doing so)."
There is considerable agreement among experts that China has the crucial role in persuading North Korea to agree to a deal. Beijing is the North's top economic benefactor and traditional defender in the international community.
Former Defense Secretary and CIA head James Schlesinger speculated about China's readiness to act forcefully against its communist ally.
"If the Chinese were prepared, seriously, to crack down and seriously to engage in sanctions, I think that that would change things," Schlesinger said. "But the Chinese have a higher priority, which is to preserve stability in the Korean Peninsula and in particular to see to it that the North Korean regime does not collapse. They are fearful, among other things, of a wave of refugees coming over the Chinese border" (Andre de Nesnera, Voice of America, Dec. 19).
Today, South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan called on the six-party participants to return to nuclear negotiations at the end of February at the latest, Yonhap reported.
"The six-party talks should be resumed in January or before the Lunar New Year's holiday (in mid-February) or the end of February," Yu said. "Otherwise the life of the talks may come to an end."
U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth traveled to Pyongyang earlier this month for a brief round of bilateral talks focused on persuading the North Korean government to return to the moribund disarmament talks that last took place a year ago.
While both Washington and Pyongyang said the direct discussions resulted in a "common understanding" on the necessity of returning to six-party negotiations, a date has yet to be set for the resumption of the diplomatic effiort.
It is thought that more bilateral discussions between the United States and North Korea would take place after New Year's.
The foreign minister's comments suggest that Seoul could have a distinct time outline for resuming the multilateral negotiations, though a nuclear negotiator for the country said Yu was merely reiterating South Korea's stance that six-party talks should be rejoined as soon as possible (Lee Chi-dong, Yonhap News Agency II, Dec. 22).