Following his victory at the polls last night, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama must prepare to contend with the threat of devastating weaponry and its spread around the world, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 4).
(Nov. 5) -
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama celebrates victory last night with his family in Chicago (Emmanual Dunand/Getty Images).
Experts said that Obama’s challenges include the potential for “catastrophic” terrorism, Iran’s disputed nuclear ambitions, North Korean denuclearization and instability in the unofficial nuclear power Pakistan.
Obama is likely to build on the Bush administration’s diplomatic push to halt Iranian nuclear activities that could support nuclear weapons development, said Peter Beinart of the Council on Foreign Relations. The Democratic senator from Illinois has said he would consider direct U.S. talks with Tehran, which maintains that it has strictly civilian nuclear aims.
Iran poses “excruciatingly difficult” challenges to the new president, said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to top foreign officials under Democratic and Republican administrations.
“Iran sits at the nexus of everything America cares about in this region: Iraq, Lebanon, nuclear proliferation, the Arab-Israeli issue,” he said (Lachlan Carmichael, Agence France-Presse I/Sky News, Nov. 5).
European nations have expressed hope that the new president will step up his country’s participation in efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear dispute (Agence France-Presse II, Nov. 5).
A senior Iranian lawmaker today said Obama was the preferable presidential candidate.
"The election of Obama over [Republican contender Senator John] McCain is positive," Iranian MP Hamid Reza Haji Babai told AFP. "Obama has promised change and this is both an opportunity and test for the United States. … We are waiting for that change.
"In the past eight years, (outgoing President George W.) Bush had created a bad atmosphere against the United States in the world with his militarism," Haji Babai said. "The election of McCain would have worsened this atmosphere."
Analyst Saeed Laylaz said that Obama’s policies could help undermine the rhetoric of Iran’s leaders.
"If Obama delivers his promises (about opening dialogue with Iran), this will weaken radicals in Iran and no one will buy the radical and extremist slogans any more," Laylaz said in reference to statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that disparage the United States.
"This will affect Iran's nuclear case because the red line is not the nuclear issue. It is rather security and opening dialogue that will bring security," he said (Agence France-Presse III/Zawya, Nov. 5).
However, the Bush administration’s attempts to diplomatically engage Iran and other nations posing proliferation dangers have raised doubts that Obama can make substantial new progress, according to the Associated Press.
In addition, Obama’s pledge to authorize independent U.S. strikes on suspected terrorist enclaves in other nations, a tactic used by the Bush administration, could undermine cooperation with affected countries (Jim Drinkard, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 5).
Meanwhile, Obama’s election produced cautious optimism among some Russian analysts, AFP reported. Moscow and Washington have seen their relations grow increasingly tense in recent years, particularly over the Bush administration’s plan to deploy missile defenses in Europe (see related GSN story, today).
The election “shows that the United States is capable of renewal, which is good for Russia-U.S. relations,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. “But no one really knows what policies Obama will pursue” because he has only addressed most issues in vague terms, he said.
The Kremlin has so far provided little comment about Obama’s election, but lawmaker Sergei Markov, a supporter of Russia’s administration, gave limited praise to the president-elect.
“We are happy that he has renounced unilateralism, that he does not want to bomb Iran and that he hopes to prevent an arms race in the region,” he said.
However, U.S. leaders cannot eliminate their country’s interests that are at odds with Russian goals, according to observers.
“Circumstances are more important than candidates. … [The United States] has so many problems now that any president would be pushed towards cooperation with other countries,” said Alexander Konovalov, head of the Russia-based Institute for Strategic Assessments (Benoit Finck, Agence France-Presse IV, Nov. 5).
Analysts in Asia warned Washington against seeking direct denuclearization talks with North Korea at the expense of the six-nation process that also includes China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, the Asia Times reported.
The U.S. alone cannot share the burden of economic incentives, standing up to North Korea. It still needs to pursue multinationalism by consulting and working with other nations such as Australia. It does not have to (only) be the members of the six-party talks,” said Korea expert Lee Young-hwa of Kansai University in Osaka.
“United Nations Security Council sanctions in relation to the North's Taepodong missile launches and nuclear testing became possible because there was the framework of the six-party talks," said South Korean academic Yun Duk-min. The talks also could develop into an important framework of cooperative security in the region” (Kosuke Takahashi, Asia Times, Nov. 6).