Upon his January inauguration, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama would inherit the leadership of a nation threatened by terror groups and political instability in nuclear-armed states, the McClatchy News Service reported (see GSN, Nov. 5).
(Nov. 6) -
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama (right), shown with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in July, could face obstacles to making major changes to U.S. foreign policy (Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images).
"President Obama will be a wartime president from day one, and he will have to make immediate decisions and come to grips with immediate national security priorities," Anthony Cordesman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote yesterday.
Richard Haass, head of the Council on Foreign Relations, added that whether or not international leaders immediately challenge the next president, "the one thing I'm sure of is, events will test him. … There will be coups. … There will be genocide. … There will be terrorism."
Obama is expected today to receive his first President’s Daily Brief, a confidential document authored by the country’s intelligence services, a high-level intelligence official said (Strobel/Linday, McClatchy News Service/Yahoo!News, Nov. 5).
In a letter sent late on Tuesday, National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell said the president-elect’s advisers would probably establish a temporary liaison group at his office, the Washington Post reported today. "We are prepared to brief the team on the (intelligence community's) capabilities as well as on significant intelligence issues," the note states.
CIA Director Michael Hayden wrote in a memorandum to staffers that his agency now serves “two sets of customers,” Obama and President George W. Bush. “Through expanded access, greater than what he had in his briefings as a candidate or as a senator, he will see the full range of capabilities we deploy for the United States,” he said (Kornblut/Cho, Washington Post, Nov. 6).
As president, Obama is expected to contend with North Korea, where the health of leader Kim Jong Il has cast uncertainty on efforts to denuclearize the country (see related GSN story, today), with Iran, which has refused to halt nuclear activities that could aid nuclear weapons development (see GSN, Nov. 3), and with al-Qaeda, which maintains a solid base along the Afghan-Pakistani border (see GSN, Oct. 28; Strobel/Linday, McClatchy).
He would also grapple with a resurgent Taliban, which has gathered strength in Afghanistan and allied with tribal militants in nuclear-armed Pakistan, the Associated Press reported.
"We're on our way to failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of losing are tremendous," said Paddy Ashdown, former secretary general of NATO. "It means Pakistan falling and nuclear weapons getting into the hands of an Islamist government and the widening of the regional conflict and Afghanistan reverting to a playground for al-Qaeda."
Ashdown called on Obama to organize an international peace symposium early in his presidency with leaders from Iran, China and other nations.
“There will be a honeymoon because the world is longing for a U.S. president to give them a reason to love the United States again," Ashdown said. "If he makes some bold moves, he can really take advantage of it" (Gregory Katz, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 6).
According to the Americas editor for Jane’s Information Group, financial instability will probably limit Obama’s ability to dramatically shift the nation’s foreign policy, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday.
"Despite his accent during the election campaign on delivering change, Obama's foreign policy in practice is likely to be constrained by the effects of economic downturn and ongoing long-term commitments inherited from the Bush administration," Robert Munks said. "The major difference from Republican foreign policy is therefore likely to be in presentation rather than substance.”
"On many ‘big ticket' issues there will be broad continuity, such as drawdown from Iraq, increased engagement in Afghanistan, the containment of Iran's putative nuclear weapons ambitions and cautious engagement with Beijing based primarily on trade.
"Countries where specific but nuanced policy shifts could be seen include Cuba, Colombia, Pakistan, Russia and Syria, and at the strategic level there is likely to be an increased focus on energy independence and environmental issues as factors affecting national security," Munks said (Agence France-Presse I/Khaleej Times, Nov. 5).
Arab League chief Amr Mussa yesterday urged Obama to base his Middle East policy on "honest brokership."
"We cannot talk about a Middle East free from nuclear weapons which applies to all but one,” he said, referring to Israel’s widely presumed possession of nuclear weapons. “It's not serious, the policy of all but one has to come to an end" (Agence France-Presse II/Zawya, Nov. 5).
Meanwhile, Israel noted concern about Obama’s stated willingness to negotiate with Iran over its disputed nuclear efforts, Reuters reported. Tehran insists its nuclear program is strictly peaceful, a position doubted by Jerusalem and the West.
"We live in a neighborhood in which sometimes dialogue — in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue — is liable to be interpreted as weakness," Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said on Israeli radio when questioned on Obama’s Middle East positions.
Questioned on whether would endorse any U.S. talks with Iran, she said: “The answer is no” (Jeffrey Heller, Reuters I, Nov. 6).
Iran yesterday said it would not tolerate U.S. incursions into Iranian airspace, a warning that one Iranian political figure said was directed more at Obama than the U.S. military presence in Iraq
"Recently it has been seen that American army helicopters were flying a small distance from Iraq's border with Iran and, because of the closeness to the border, the danger of them violating Iran's border is possible," state radio reported, referring to an Iranian army statement. "Iran's armed forces will respond to any violation” (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters II, Nov. 5).