U.S. intelligence agencies were right to conclude last year that Iran halted efforts to develop a nuclear weapon in 2003, recently retired Deputy National Intelligence Director Thomas Fingar said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 9).
The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran released in November 2007 states that intelligence agencies believed "with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," the Washington Times reported. The program included nuclear-warhead design research and secret attempts to produce highly enriched uranium for a bomb, according to the document (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2007).
"I still stand by the judgments in that estimate," said Fingar, who left his post Dec. 1. "We've had other teams look at this. Everyone who has, has affirmed the judgments we made."
"I still regard Iran as a dangerous place," he added.
Some detractors contend that the report overlooks the threat posed by Iran's known uranium enrichment program, which could produce nuclear power plant fuel but also weapons material. Iran insists its atomic program is strictly peaceful and denies ever having engaged in nuclear weapons research.
National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell criticized the estimate's tone in February, telling U.S. lawmakers he would have emphasized Iran's ongoing enrichment efforts (see GSN, Feb. 6).
Fingar said he does not believe that Iran has made a final decision to pursue a nuclear weapon. "We stick with an estimate until we change it," he said (Barbara Slavin, Washington Times, Dec. 10).
Meanwhile, a contingent of former high-level officials expressed optimism yesterday that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama could break new ground in efforts to defuse the Iranian dispute, the Associated Press reported.
Former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Hans Blix said he hoped the "Obama administration in the United States will be more imaginative" than the Bush administration in its attempts to resolve the standoff.
Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov added: "The new administration coming to power in the United States could breathe a new life into the negotiation process."
William Perry, who served as defense secretary under the Clinton administration, said the United States would have to work closely with Russia to successfully address the stalemate (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 9).