A North Korean missile launch might spur South Korea to reconsider its refusal so far to participate in a U.S.-led program to prevent smuggling of weapons of mass destruction on the high seas, the Korea Herald reported today (see GSN, March 13).
"That is a possibility because the Proliferation Security Initiative is aimed at containing weapons of mass destruction, and if North Korea develops and attains such capabilities, there will be a need to prevent proliferation. So from this point of view, the launch may raise the need to review full membership," South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said Friday.
Seoul to date has been only an observer to the program in order to avoid aggravating Pyongyang, which is known to export missiles and other weapons and is suspected of supporting Syrian nuclear activities (see GSN, Feb. 27).
Some officials and analysts have argued that PSI membership would give Seoul an additional lever to help modify Pyongyang's behavior.
The Stalinist state has indicated it plans early next month to launch a rocket that would put a satellite into orbit. South Korea and other nations have expressed concern that the launch is actually intended to test the North's ballistic missile technology.
Pyongyang sees the test as an opportunity to ensure the stability of the government and to send a message to Seoul and Washington, two of the nations involved in deadlocked talks on North Korea's nuclear program (Kim Ji-hyun, Korea Herald, March 16).
"But the North would be further isolated internationally," Yu said. "There is a reason why the North has chosen the path it did, and while it may achieve its goal, there will be consequences to suffer, and the North will be bracing for them."
Any launch would be a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718, which was passed following North Korea's 2006 nuclear test and prohibits ballistic missile and atomic activities, Yu said. He acknowledged that it could be difficult to have all Security Council members sign onto new sanctions.
"Japan, Russia, China and the United States all have their own concerns and stances, and we cannot criticize this. It is important that they find a common denominator. What is significant is that China and Russia also firmly believe that North Korea's persistence in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles are not helpful to international peace and security. It would be based on this belief that they would by all means seek to halt North Korea's development plans," Yu said (Kim Ji-hyun, Korea Herald, March 16).
The U.S. State Department also invoked the 2006 resolution Friday in warning North Korea against a launch, the Korea Times reported.
"As to what will happen and when things happen, I'll have to leave that for a future discussion," said spokesman Gordon Duguid. "Most interpret a launch, as well, as being a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718. I think the isolation that North Korea feels on this issue is something that should be noted by us, if it's not being taken to heart there" (Korea Times, March 14).