North Korea on Saturday responded to new U.N. sanctions by vowing to enrich uranium and to "weaponize" all available plutonium, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, June 12).
(Jun. 15) -
South Korean Ambassador the United Nations Park In-kook, left, shakes hands with his Japanese counterpart Yukio Takasu on Friday after the U.N. Security Council endorsed a sanctions resolution in response to North Korea's recent nuclear test. Pyongyang said it would respond to the sanctions by enriching uranium and "weaponizing" all available plutonium (Mario Tama/Getty Images).
The North had previously refuted any suggestion that it was involved in uranium enrichment activities, and it had suspended plutonium reprocessing under the terms of a 2007 denuclearization agreement. However, the government reversed course on its nuclear program after the U.N. Security Council condemned Pyongyang for what is believed to have been a test of long-range missile technology.
The North ejected all foreign nuclear observers, vowed to resume production of weapon-grade plutonium and, on May 25, conducted its second underground nuclear test. The Security Council on Friday penalized Pyongyang for the atomic blast with heightened trade and finance penalties (see GSN, June 12).
"It makes no difference to North Korea whether its nuclear status is recognized or not," said a North Korea Foreign Ministry official in a statement. "It has become an absolutely impossible option for North Korea to even think about giving up its nuclear weapons."
Striking an aggressive tone similar to statements issued following past U.N. actions, Pyongyang added that "an attempted blockade of any kind by the United States and its followers will be regarded as an act of war and met with a decisive military response." The statement appeared to be addressing the request in the Security Council resolution passed Friday that U.N. member nations consider inspections of suspicious cargo coming into or out of the Stalinist state.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the North's "continuing provocative actions are deeply regrettable."
While North Korea's plutonium reprocessing has been an accepted fact for years, the reclusive nation had denied its efforts to enrich uranium at every turn since 2002, when U.S. intelligence first suggested that such a program existed. The United States had even pulled back from its accusations in 2007, when a high-level intelligence official said there was only "midconfidence" that Pyongyang was trying to produce weapon-grade uranium.
In any case, U.S. officials do not believe North Korea has made much headway on a uranium enrichment program. Pyongyang, however, said different on Saturday.
"Enough success has been made in developing uranium-enrichment technology to provide nuclear fuel to allow the experimental procedure," it said. "The process of uranium enrichment will be commenced."
While the North is probably years away from being able to build a uranium-based atomic weapon, Iran is much farther along on enrichment technology and might help Pyongyang, said Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford-based nuclear expert who has visited the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex, in a recent article in Foreign Policy. The two anti-Western countries have shared missile technology in the past.
The North is much farther along on producing weapons-grade plutonium through the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods, Hecker told the Post. It has enough rods left to build one or two more nuclear weapons, he said, but if it recommissions the reprocessing plant at Yongbyon -- a process that would probably take about six months -- it could continue to make nuclear weapons at a rate of about one per year (Blaine Harden, Washington Post, June 14).
Seoul-based expert Yoon Deok-min said Pyongyang's stockpile of reprocessed plutonium is thought to total about 110 pounds -- enough to power six bombs, the Associated Press reported (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press I/Examiner.com, June 13).
Some analysts believe North Korea's coming out about its uranium ambitions will complicate the stalled and possibly abandoned denuclearization process, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday.
"It's a threat via a confession," said South Korean defense analyst Baek Seung-joo. "The nuclear-ambitious North is shifting its strategic goal from having just developed atomic weapons to expanding its nuclear arsenal in a more stable manner, and by all means available."
The North has not proven that it has indeed developed a viable uranium-enrichment program. If that is the case, though,, said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, Pyongyang could leverage its natural resources to vastly improve its strategic position.
"If it is true, the world would face a very disturbing situation," Yang said. "The North has abundant natural uranium of good quality which, if combined with technology and facilities, would result in a great nuclear arsenal."
Furthermore, the nuclear standoff with North Korea over the last few months might have escalated past the point where the United States and its allies could hope to re-engage Pyongyang in denuclearization talks.
"The North will face a strong backlash from the United States and the international community for lying in the past about its uranium enrichment program," Baek said (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, June 14).
Russian state media said today the flurry of activity at North Korean nuclear sites documented by satellite reconnaissance earlier this month has died down, indicating that a third nuclear test is either imminent or has been delayed, Reuters reported.
"Information we have received, some from our space reconnaissance, indicates that the intensity of movement around the nuclear objects has fallen in recent days," RIA Novosti quoted a Russian military official as saying. "This could be evidence that the North Koreans are preparing to hold their next nuclear test or that they have taken a break" (Conor Humphries, Reuters, June 15).
South Korean news outlets today reported Washington and Seoul have been keeping closer tabs on those sites, monitoring for hints of another nuclear test, the Korea Herald reported.
"We have started running a surveillance network based on information that Pyongyang may conduct a third nuclear test in protest of the United Nations Security Council's sanctions," a South Korean intelligence official told a local newspaper.
Officials are looking at a possible new test site in the rocky northern regions of the state. (Kim So-hyun, Korea Herald, June 16).
There have also been reports that the North might have constructed two or three additional sites in the northeastern part of the country, where it conducted its first two nuclear blasts, AFP reported.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have pinpointed 11 different sites that could be candidates for the next test, according to the newspaper JoongAng Ilbo.
However, an intelligence source said the agencies are unable to effectively monitor all the places where the North might potentially conduct a test. "It's not that easy to pick a multiple number of nuclear test sites and closely monitor all of them," the Yonhap News Agency quoted an official as saying. "In 2006 we made a list of suspected North Korean nuclear test sites for possible verification. But we just cannot conclude that these facilities are all possible nuclear test sites" (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, June 15).
Some analysts say that the financial sanctions levied against Pyongyang might not have too powerful an effect on a government that does not seem to care about protecting its citizens from the sort of poverty isolation can bring, AP reported.
Based on past behavior, the North would be more apt to prioritize continuing to develop its nuclear capability over developing its economy.
"North Korea is so far behind South Korea in terms of the economy and military capability, and that trend is irreversible," said Lee Woo-young of the University of North Korean Studies. "But a nuclear weapon is something that can put North Korea on an equal footing at a very low cost and very effectively.
The latest round of U.N. sanctions against the North does include a ban on exporting arms and a mandate to outside institutions prohibiting financing projects related to Pyongyang's nuclear program (William Foreman, Associated Press II/Google News, June 13).
However, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden yesterday said that sanctions will only curb Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions insofar as the international community makes sure they are enforced, AP reported.
"It is important that we make sure those sanctions stick and those sanctions prohibit them from exporting or importing weapons," Biden said. "This is a matter of us now keeping the pressure on" (Associated Press III/Google News, June 14).
South Korean Lee Myung-bak is slated to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama tomorrow in Washington, and the North Korea issue is expected to be high on the agenda, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, June 15).