India must not join the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, as it might need to conduct further nuclear-weapon blasts, a high-level scientist told the Times of India yesterday (see GSN, May 12, 2008).
New Delhi's last nuclear-weapon tests involved five weapons in May 1998. The sole thermonuclear device to be tried was a "fizzle," meaning its yield was lower than anticipated, according to K. Santhanam, a senior scientist and the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization's top representative at the tests.
"Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT,'' Santhanam said.
He emphasized the point again later in the interview: "Two things are clear: that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests."
The Indian government has said the yield of the blast was 45 kilotons, while western observers said the yield did not exceed 20 kilotons.
No other nuclear scientist, particularly one actually involved in the 1998 tests, has contradicted the government's stand on the thermonuclear blast, according to security analyst Bharat Karnad.
"He is not just saying that India should not sign the CTBT, which I believe is completely against India's interests, but also that the 1998 thermonuclear device test was inadequate," Karnad said. "His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it."
India is among nine nations that must still ratify the test ban treaty before it can enter into force (see GSN, Aug. 19).
Former Indian Atomic Energy Commission Chairman R. Chidambaram, who also participated in the tests, has stood by the official position on the thermonuclear yield. He has said that future designs could be tested using computer simulations rather than actual test blasts, the Times of India reported (Sachin Parashar, Times of India, Aug. 27).
Indian officials quickly disputed Santhanam's claim.
"As far we are concerned, we go by the views of the scientists. They have given us certain capability and that is capable enough to provide deterrence and they are proven," said Adm. Sureesh Mehta, head of the Indian navy. "We are nation that maintains a credible deterrence and that is more than enough to deter anybody" (Press Trust of India/Economic Times, Aug. 27).