Iran could face new economic penalties if it fails to move toward resolving disputes over its nuclear activities during multilateral talks Thursday with world powers, the United States warned yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 28).
(Sep. 29) -
An Iranian Zelzal missile takes off in a test launch on Sunday. Iran received criticism for conducting several missile tests ahead of multilateral talks this week (Shaigan/Getty Images).
Concerns that Iran's uranium enrichment capability could generate nuclear-weapon material were heightened last week when the nation disclosed its work on a second enrichment facility. Iran argued that it had declared the unfinished Qum enrichment site in accordance with international rules and said the facility would only generate low-enriched uranium for fueling nuclear power reactors.
"This is an important day, and an important week for the Iranians, they have decisions to make," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said ahead of Tehran's talks with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. He pressed Iran to grant international inspectors "immediate, unfettered access" to the Qum facility: "That would be the least that they can do."
"I don't believe that there's ever been as broad and as deep a consensus about addressing the concerns that we have right now," Gibbs added (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Sept. 28).
"Iran will inform very soon IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) about a timetable for its visits to the second enrichment plant," AFP quoted Iranian Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi as saying in an interview made public today (Agence France-Presse II/Zawya, Sept. 29).
Washington also blasted Iran for launching several missiles Sunday and yesterday, including the longer-range Shahab 3 and Sajjil missiles (see GSN, Sept. 28).
Although the tests were apparently planned independently of the upcoming negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, "I would lump any of these into the provocative nature with which Iran has acted on the world stage for a number of years," Gibbs said.
State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley characterized the missile exercises as "not helpful at all."
"To the extent that Iran wants to continue to act more like a police state or a military state than a constructive player in the region, it just will further isolate Iran," he said.
If Thursday's talks yield little progress, "it just will further isolate Iran, and you'll continue to see greater international consensus for additional steps, including sanctions against Iran," Crowley said. "This provocative behavior did not work for North Korea, it's unlikely to work for Iran."
Moscow echoed Washington's statements on the missile tests: "It is not prohibited by any international agreement, but of course when missile launches occur on top of the unresolved situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program, it's worrying," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
China became more supportive of tough action against Tehran after discussing the nuclear standoff with the United States last week, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said: "For the first time, really, the Chinese supported elements of our tough approach on the P-5-plus-one" (Agence France-Presse I).
The United States is developing a blueprint for financially isolating Iran by the end of the year if the sides fail to reach an agreement, the Washington Post reported today. Independent U.S. sanctions would be measured to encourage international consensus and could focus on entities that aid delivery of goods to Iran through ports in Dubai, Hong Kong and elsewhere. Firms that insure shipments to Iran could be included in new penalties.
In addition, existing restrictions would be implemented more rigorously where possible, U.S. officials told the Post.
"Towards the end of the year, we'll be able to calculate how much progress" has been made in negotiations, Crowley said. "If they continue to fail to answer the questions, then obviously there will be implications and consequences to that, as well" (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Sept. 29).
International penalties could be aimed at Iran's energy operations and other sectors, along with the financial assets and travel privileges of individuals and entities linked to Iran's nuclear work, the Associated Press reported (Matthew Lee, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Sept. 29).
"The new strategy will be broader," one source with knowledge of German policy told the Wall Street Journal, referring to growing support for international penalties that would target elements of the Iranian economy outside its nuclear program (Wall Street Journal, Sept. 29).
In Tehran, Iranian lawmakers today cautioned world powers against imposing further sanctions, AP reported.
"If the 5-plus-1 repeats the past mistakes, the parliament will put other decisions on agenda," parliament members said in a statement, possibly referring to pending legislation that would expedite the nation's enrichment work (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press II/Google News, Sept. 29).
Western "propaganda" threatens to undermine the talks, warned the head of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy commission
"If this propaganda is effective, the talks will fail and these countries will be back to square one," Alaeddin Boroujerdi said (Hiedeh Farmani, Agence France-Presse III/Zawya, Sept. 28).
The talks are unlikely to pave the way for a resolution despite the six powers' growing unity against Iran, officials and analysts told Reuters.
"Things have changed since last week's [enrichment site] announcement but we have to go through the motions since Iran has asked for this meeting," one high-level Western diplomat said.
"The talks are pretty much doomed," the official added. "It's clear Iran is not going to say what we want to hear and we're going to have to move to the next phase."
"We are counting on the Iranians not to come (to the talks) empty-handed," a Russian Foreign Ministry source added.
"The Qum revelation is bound to make the (six powers) more united and determined to persuade Iran to desist and abide by IAEA rules. It certainly puts Iran on the defensive," said nonproliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick. "But that won't solve the underlying issue of the purpose of the enrichment program. The solution will have to include limitations on the program," he said (Charbonneau/Heinrich, Reuters, Sept. 29).
Meanwhile, the U.S. intelligence community continues to disagree with its Israeli and German counterparts over the status of Iran's alleged formal nuclear-weapon design program, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Sept. 17). The United States contends that the program has remained suspended since 2003; Israel says the program resumed in 2005, and Germany holds that the effort was never frozen.
“It comes down to interpreting the same data in different ways, in looking at the same information and coming up with different conclusions,” said former Energy Department intelligence chief Rolf Mowatt-Larssen (New York Times, Sept. 28).
Former Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi warned yesterday that international sanctions could undermine Iran's domestic political opposition, AFP reported.
Such penalties "will impose agonies on a nation who suffers enough from miserable statesmen," Mousavi said.
"The country is on the verge of crises which will mostly hurt the poor as a result of wrong and adventurous foreign policies of the government from which our people suffer," he said. "We might have simplistically thought this is an advantage for our [opposition] movement, but it is not" (Agence France-Presse IV/Google News, Sept. 28).