WASHINGTON -- Conservative foreign policy experts this week repudiated the notion that the United States could reach a "grand bargain" with Russia to form a common position on Iran's controversial nuclear program (see GSN, May 14).
(May. 15) -
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton and other conservatives this week discussed the possibility that Russia would accept incentives in exchange for increasing pressure on Iran to halt disputed nuclear activities (Spencer Platt/Getty Images).
"The [Obama] administration's Russia policy is wrong. The administration's Iran policy is wrong. The administration's Russia-Iran policy is wrong," former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said during a panel discussion Wednesday at the American Enterprise Institute.
There has been speculation in recent weeks that Moscow might lean harder on Tehran to stop activities that could produce nuclear-weapon material in exchange for concessions from Washington. Examples that have been floated include scaling back U.S. relations with Russia's neighbors or pausing plans to deploy missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech.
Recent U.S. efforts to penalize Iran through the U.N. Security Council on the have met resistance from by Russia and China, which previously signed off on three sanctions resolutions. Both countries have billions of dollars invested in Iran and Russia built the first Iranian nuclear reactor, at Bushehr. That connection could give them greater influence over Tehran.
Leaders in Washington and other capitals have for years expressed concern regarding the intent of Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran insists is solely civilian in nature. U.S. President Barack Obama and other Western leaders have recently made diplomatic overtures to Tehran in hopes of resolving the standoff.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates last week said there is "no grand bargain" with Russia on Iran's nuclear program in the works. "I think concerns out there of some kind of grand bargain developed in secret are completely unrealistic," the Associated Press quoted him as saying.
The chances that Russia would cooperate on what the Obama administration has called "crippling sanctions" against Iran and its nuclear program are "slim to none," according to Bolton.
Former Bush administration Defense Undersecretary Eric Edelman concurred regarding the near-term prospect of an agreement on Iran between Washington and Moscow. Many in the Kremlin have financial interests in the Middle Eastern nation's energy and export industries, he said.
"My conclusion is that the Russian leadership have so many conflicting interests at stake it's too hard to calculate the national interest," Edelman said during the panel discussion. He also speculated there might be a "cynical calculation" in Moscow that "luckily, probably, the U.S. or Israel will take care of [Iran]."
Other observers contend that any talk of a "grand bargain" between the United States and Russia is nonexistent or being blown out of proportion.
"A 'bargain' is not the right way to describe it. That implies we're giving up something in order to get something, which is not the right mindset at all," nonproliferation expert Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, said yesterday in a telephone interview with Global Security Newswire. "We're not bargaining anything away. There is a new realism about U.S.-Russia relations and the possibility of new cooperation to solve several joint areas of concern, including Iran's nuclear program."
Cirincione added that "restoration of normal diplomacy" would be the best way for the United States to proceed in dealing with Iran and its nuclear activities.
However, some at the Wednesday event asserted that some kind of deal must be struck between the two countries. While Russia is against nuclear proliferation "in principle ... it's not about principles; it's about quid pro quo," said panel member Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based columnist for Novaya Gazeta.
Felgenhauer suggested the United States offer "something material, not a lot of hot air about world peace." He speculated that Moscow might be enticed to cooperate on Iran if the West recognized Georgia as part of Russia, an idea that stunned his fellow panelists and many in the audience.
Bush administration State Department official Stephen Rademaker said he had never heard of that particular idea. He added that, based on his own experience, the notion of "trading" Georgia is "in the ballpark" for Russian leaders.
The United States is "facing a period of frustration" on Iran because there is no "alignment of interests" with Russia, according to Rademaker. He said any deal would have to be "transactional" and suggested "defense system for defense system" -- such as persuading Russia not to sell S-300s air-defense technology to Iran if the United States does not move forward with missile defense in Europe.
An Iranian nuclear-weapon program could lead to a "cascade of proliferation" throughout the Middle East, Timothy Morrison, national security policy adviser to U.S. Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), said during the discussion. He prefaced his remarks by saying that his views did not represent those of Kyl or the U.S. Senate Republican Conference.
Morrison enumerated a number of levers the United States could use to jump-start talks with Russia on Iran's nuclear program, including allowing Russia into the World Trade Organization.
The United States could explore other ways to prod Moscow to agree to sanctions against Iran, Morrison said, such as increased military to military cooperation with countries like Georgia or Ukraine. He also voiced support for energy projects that would circumvent Russia.
"If we can drain Russia's treasury by targeting energy dominance I think we'd go a long way to getting their attention and having something we can negotiate with," Morrison said.
Edelman said the United States is "not yet at point where we can't stop Iran, but we're getting very close." If Russia agrees to sanctions there still is the "slightest chance to change calculations," he added.
When asked if Russia would agree on an Iran policy if it were allowed to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Felgenhauer said there would have to be "regime change" in Moscow first. Right now, "no way does Russian want to integrate" with the Euro-Atlantic architecture, he said.
Trita Parsi, president and co-founder of the National Iranian-American Council, said ramping up pressure on Russia to deal with Iran is a limited policy approach to the Middle East.
"It's difficult to get tough on the issue of Iran's nuclear program and then get cooperation on Afghanistan and Iraq," he told Global Security Newswire.